Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:26:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D7 0xd782…1219 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$614 (+37%) realized +$621 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$579now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$561
crypto 12% +$143
sports 7% −$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +9.2% -1.2% 58% 58% +42.3%
≤30d 12 +9.2% -1.2% 58% 58% +42.3%
≤90d 12 +9.2% -1.2% 58% 58% +42.3%
all 12 +9.2% -1.2% 58% 58% +42.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 58% +42.3%
10% -10.7% 58% +28.7%
15% -19.3% 58% +16.2%
20% -27.2% 42% +4.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$27 · ×3.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.34 per $1 lost it wins $5.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$579
Realized+$621
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)12 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $196 $194 −$2 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $195 $192 −$2 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $98 $96 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$53 +53%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$116 +116%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $100 +$44 +44%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$53 +53%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $200 +$97 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $200 +$143 +72%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$223 +223%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $100 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $200 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $200 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $100 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 22h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 22h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $200 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $200 2d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 65¢ $100 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $579.08 · official $579.08 (match) · 23 history records