Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:56:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D7 0xd785…bc80 crypto 88 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+2%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%45W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$14
other 15% +$2
politics 4% +$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +1.0% -8.6% 53% 51% -15.0%
≤30d 88 +4.3% -5.6% 51% 49% -12.3%
≤90d 88 +4.3% -5.6% 51% 49% -12.3%
all 88 +4.3% -5.6% 51% 49% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 49% -12.3%
10% -14.7% 47% -20.7%
15% -22.9% 33% -28.3%
20% -30.5% 31% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses45 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage29d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$5 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$9 +219%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $4 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 250 history records