Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:02:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd788…16d3 other 121 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$252 (-0%) realized −$252 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate23%27W / 92L
Whale WR7%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,053per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$618now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$8
14 days−$24
30 days−$1,204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$272
politics 35% −$14
sports 19% −$12
economics 3% $0
world 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -5.7% -14.7% 4% 4% -13.6%
≤90d 51 -0.3% -9.8% 8% 6% -10.0%
all 119 +0.3% -9.2% 23% 13% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 13% -9.7%
10% -17.9% 13% -18.4%
15% -25.9% 10% -26.2%
20% -33.1% 10% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 7% (≥$1,504) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$22 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$618
Realized−$252
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses27 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)7%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)119 / 121
History coverage159d
Avg bet$1,053
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $331 $331 +$0 (+0%)
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $288 $288 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $2,167 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $703 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $782 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,175 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,631 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,549 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2,556 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $735 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $798 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $3,013 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,819 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $62 +$103 +165%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $801 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $789 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $816 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $812 −$1 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $61 −$61 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 23 $1,186 −$1,186 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $3,618 −$4 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $936 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $2,408 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $2,628 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $5,080 −$5 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 14 $1,056 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $822 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $827 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $2,461 −$5 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $2,634 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $2,861 −$3 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $5,714 −$6 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 07 $1,616 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Apr 07 $76 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 30 $15 +$26 +173%
Predators vs. Lightning Mar 30 $1,650 +$850 +52%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $1,367 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $2,411 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $1,462 −$3 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $1,386 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $2,807 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 24 $1,481 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $288 1h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $364 2h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $365 4h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $296 44h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $296 46h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $186 46h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $186 4d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $701 4d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $703 5d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $760 5d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $761 5d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $781 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $782 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $713 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $714 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $548 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $549 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $553 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $554 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $632 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $633 9d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $331 9d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $889 12d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $890 12d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $734 12d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $735 13d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $797 13d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $798 13d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $916 13d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $917 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $618.48 · official $618.48 (match) · 375 history records