Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:45:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D7 0xd789…b2a2 crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$26 (+2%) realized +$28 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$621
other 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +22.9% +11.2% 67% 67% +32.8%
≤30d 12 +22.9% +11.2% 67% 67% +32.8%
≤90d 12 +22.9% +11.2% 67% 67% +32.8%
all 12 +22.9% +11.2% 67% 67% +32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.2% 67% +32.8%
10% ← realistic here +0.5% 50% +20.1%
15% -9.2% 42% +8.5%
20% -18.1% 33% -2.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$9 · ×8.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×17.98 per $1 lost it wins $17.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 51¢ 46¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $473 +$219 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $396 +$74 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $135 +$132 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $115 +$177 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$26 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $71 +$16 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $62 +$10 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $410 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $273 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $58 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $6 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.71 · official $19.71 (match) · 38 history records