Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:29:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D7 0xd78b…32fd crypto 1305 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 122d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$34 (+0%) realized +$35 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate82%1060W / 232L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$43
14 days+$19
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$590
sports 2% +$58
other 1% +$41
politics 0% −$14
world 0% −$1
weather 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -5.5% -14.5% 53% 26% -4.1%
≤30d 130 -8.0% -16.8% 66% 28% -7.4%
≤90d 414 -8.1% -16.9% 76% 33% -13.0%
all 1292 -4.6% -13.7% 82% 14% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 14% -10.3%
10% -22.0% 4% -18.9%
15% -29.5% 3% -26.7%
20% -36.4% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses1060 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1292 / 1305
History coverage123d ⚠
Avg bet$45
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-14%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? No 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 3 New Zealand? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? No 95¢ 95¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? No 95¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+71%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $15 $0 -3%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $15 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -76%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -12%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -62%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$20 +195%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $30 +$5 +15%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $16 +$15 +95%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $9 −$2 -25%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $12 +$2 +13%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 15 $51 +$4 +9%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 15 $95 +$24 +25%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will Jimmy Stanger win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +87%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 172.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $15 $0 -3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 14 $18 −$15 -83%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $23 +$1 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $71 +$29 +42%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $98 −$1 -0%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $71 +$4 +6%
Will Ryan Gerard win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wor Jun 08 $11 −$2 -21%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Jun 07 $3 $0 +4%
Will JT Poston win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd Jun 07 $5 +$3 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY No 96¢ $5 25m
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 3 New Zealand? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 3 Egypt? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? SELL No 86¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? SELL No 87¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? SELL No 86¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? SELL No 86¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? SELL No 85¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? SELL No 89¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? SELL No 61¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? SELL No 99¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? SELL No 91¢ $6 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 74¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? SELL No 85¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? SELL No 93¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY No 91¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? SELL No 95¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? SELL No 92¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY No 97¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? SELL No 93¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? SELL No 93¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? SELL No 92¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? SELL No 92¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 81¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY No 92¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY No 91¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? SELL No 82¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? SELL No 87¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.79 · official $54.04 · 3500 history records