Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:29:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd78d…81e0 other 690 markets active 0h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,447 (-5%) realized −$8,044 · open +$597
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%269W / 417L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$859est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$6,077now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,886
7 days−$1,729
14 days−$2,550
30 days−$10,324
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$6,695
sports 30% −$1,839
world 1% +$621
crypto 1% −$864
finance 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -45.3% -50.5% 13% 13% -56.5%
≤30d 132 -26.0% -33.1% 29% 24% -27.3%
≤90d 481 -18.1% -25.9% 37% 34% -28.4%
all 686 -9.8% -18.4% 39% 37% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 37% -15.4%
10% -26.2% 36% -23.5%
15% -33.3% 33% -30.9%
20% -39.9% 28% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$220 vs −$164 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$6,077
Realized−$8,044
Unrealized+$597
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses269 / 417
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$859
Open positions4
Markets (closed)686 / 690
History coverage272d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 686 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $4,189 $4,700 +$512 (+12%)
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $1,111 $1,193 +$82 (+7%)
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $144 $158 +$15 (+10%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $37 $26 −$11 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 18 $137 −$137 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $96 −$96 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 18 $298 −$298 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $390 −$390 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 18 $286 −$286 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 18 $554 −$554 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 16 $6 +$23 +414%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $6 +$6 +109%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $6 $0 -2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $72 −$72 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $69 +$153 +221%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Málaga CF 1 - 1 UD Almería? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $93 −$93 -100%
Exact Score: Málaga CF 1 - 0 UD Almería? Jun 15 $183 −$183 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $285 −$285 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 14 $26 +$59 +225%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $63 −$63 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $188 +$1,064 +567%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $75 −$7 -9%
Will Latvia vs. Slovakia end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 +$4 +70%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $36 −$36 -100%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $52 −$52 -100%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 09 $82 +$4 +5%
UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $644 +$397 +62%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $3 +$11 +442%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 08 $20 +$10 +52%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 08 $27 +$43 +161%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 16m
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 16m
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $26 29m
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $601 1h
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 1h
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 1h
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $38 1h
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 1h
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 2h
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 2h
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $303 2h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $84 2h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $84 2h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 2h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 2h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 2h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $99 2h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $100 2h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $28 9h
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $66 9h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $2,000 9h
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 9h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 1¢ $19 20h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $34 20h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $53 20h
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 28h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $393 28h
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,077.36 · official $6,077.48 (match) · 2643 history records