Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:13:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D7 0xd78e…e3a5 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover
Total PnL +$165 (+27%) realized +$165 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$108
14 days+$121
30 days+$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$89
sports 4% +$57
world 4% −$16
crypto 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+40.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +55.1% +40.3% 48% 48% +8.0%
≤30d 26 +55.1% +40.3% 50% 50% +9.4%
≤90d 26 +55.1% +40.3% 50% 50% +9.4%
all 26 +55.1% +40.3% 50% 50% +9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.3% 50% +9.4%
10% +26.9% 50% -1.1%
15% +14.6% 42% -10.6%
20% +3.4% 35% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +70% → late +40% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$11 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$165
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage7d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $45 −$7 -15%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $48 +$11 +24%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $32 −$18 -56%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $7 −$1 -17%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$20 +134%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $77 +$17 +22%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 +$27 +874%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 −$22 -85%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$16 -64%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $47 +$20 +43%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 21 $6 −$2 -24%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 +$42 +676%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $37 −$17 -45%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$11 +111%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $18 +$21 +114%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $44 +$29 +67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $22 +$23 +105%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 +$11 +70%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$23 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -92%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $41 +$19 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$14 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 49m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 58¢ $34 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 67¢ $2 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $45 6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 6h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 20h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 21h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 37¢ $6 21h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 34¢ $9 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 21h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 21h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 22h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 22h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 22h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 22h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 23h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 23h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $16 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records