Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:06:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D7 0xd793…49b0 sports 114 markets active 0h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,421 (-5%) realized −$1,419 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate57%64W / 49L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$119
14 days+$36
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$1,450
other 3% +$17
crypto 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +4.2% -5.7% 59% 53% -3.1%
≤30d 37 +4.5% -5.4% 57% 54% -7.0%
≤90d 41 +3.1% -6.7% 59% 54% -6.8%
all 113 -9.1% -17.8% 57% 38% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 38% -14.1%
10% -25.6% 27% -22.3%
15% -32.8% 19% -29.8%
20% -39.4% 12% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$74 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$1,419
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses64 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage143d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Under 76¢ 74¢ $109 $106 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $79 +$30 +38%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $80 −$1 -1%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $121 −$41 -34%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $91 +$31 +34%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 −$9 -9%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $77 −$76 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $269 −$43 -16%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $95 +$19 +20%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $100 +$36 +36%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $28 +$9 +31%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $117 +$11 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $100 +$32 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$52 +52%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $48 −$42 -86%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$24 +94%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $81 −$81 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $44 +$38 +86%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $138 −$61 -44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $67 +$38 +57%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $36 +$31 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $24 +$12 +48%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $88 −$63 -72%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $62 +$26 +42%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $155 −$51 -33%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5 May 27 $41 +$13 +30%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $100 +$52 +52%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $100 +$41 +41%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $100 +$20 +20%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $13 −$13 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $10 +$2 +23%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $51 +$14 +28%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $10 +$1 +10%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5 Mar 17 $10 −$4 -37%
Clippers vs. Spurs Mar 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Pelicans vs. Suns Mar 07 $10 +$2 +18%
Bulls vs. Suns: O/U 223.5 Mar 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Warriors vs. Rockets Mar 06 $1 +$3 +300%
Lakers vs. Nuggets Mar 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Pistons vs. Spurs Mar 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Raptors vs. Timberwolves Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Nets vs. Heat Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $109 17m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 72¢ $79 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 87¢ $79 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $80 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 55¢ $81 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $121 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $91 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 63¢ $90 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $77 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $54 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 30¢ $54 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $114 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $114 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 83¢ $95 27h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 59¢ $95 27h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 33h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $100 45h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 76¢ $28 47h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 98¢ $129 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $117 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $97 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $100 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $115 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $100 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $152 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $100 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.43 · official $106.43 (match) · 248 history records