Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:23:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd793…bbd5 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$48 (-12%) realized −$51 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate24%5W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$13
weather 31% −$18
sports 15% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -25.4% -32.5% 24% 19% -29.1%
≤30d 21 -25.4% -32.5% 24% 19% -29.1%
≤90d 21 -25.4% -32.5% 24% 19% -29.1%
all 21 -25.4% -32.5% 24% 19% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.5% 19% -29.1%
10% -38.9% 14% -35.9%
15% -44.8% 14% -42.1%
20% -50.3% 10% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses5 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)21 / 29
History coverage4d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 74¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+44%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? No 95¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$4 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $100 57m
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 94¢ $10 1h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 88¢ $10 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $9 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 61¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 60¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 57¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 91¢ $10 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.11 · official $164.05 (match) · 44 history records