Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:03:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D7 0xd794…248b sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$255 (+2%) realized +$277 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%17W / 12L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$510per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$208est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2,019now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,376
7 days+$1,376
14 days+$1,074
30 days+$629
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$162
crypto 4% +$88
other 1% −$179
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +72.0% +55.6% 100% 100% +55.9%
≤30d 26 +13.8% +2.9% 65% 65% -5.0%
≤90d 29 +2.0% -7.7% 59% 59% -8.9%
all 29 +2.0% -7.7% 59% 59% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 59% -8.9%
10% -16.6% 59% -17.6%
15% -24.6% 52% -25.6%
20% -32.0% 34% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$515) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -27% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$291 vs −$405 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$2,019
Realized+$277
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$208
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage31d
Avg bet$510
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 46¢ 46¢ $2,041 $2,019 −$22 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,200 +$878 +73%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $703 +$498 +71%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $454 −$447 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $309 +$145 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 04 $204 +$88 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 04 $109 +$106 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 04 $67 +$48 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 04 $21 +$45 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 04 $208 −$200 -96%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $163 +$67 +41%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $865 −$705 -82%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $483 +$383 +79%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 03 $360 +$124 +34%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $515 −$509 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $359 +$156 +43%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $1,423 −$1,236 -87%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $1,482 +$920 +62%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 27 $798 +$685 +86%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) May 26 $505 +$295 +58%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualif May 24 $180 −$178 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner May 24 $361 −$358 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $185 −$182 -98%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $690 −$505 -73%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 21 $515 +$175 +34%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $349 +$166 +48%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) May 21 $181 +$168 +93%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Emma Navarro vs Iva Jovic May 20 $181 −$179 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $181 −$179 -99%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Diane Parry vs Emma Raducanu May 19 $180 −$178 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 46¢ $2,074 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 57¢ $1,200 11h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $703 15h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 52¢ $454 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 80¢ $454 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 54¢ $309 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $215 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $115 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $230 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 70¢ $163 15d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) SELL Spurs 10¢ $63 15d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) SELL Spurs 10¢ $98 15d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 53¢ $865 15d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL TYLOO 100¢ $866 15d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 55¢ $483 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,019.09 · official $2,019.09 (match) · 62 history records