Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:13:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd79c…a0e7 sports 274 markets active 1h ago coverage 744d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%104W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days+$68
30 days−$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$738
other 39% −$66
politics 6% +$1,330
economics 2% −$324
crypto 1% −$280
world 0% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -15.9% -23.9% 0% 0% -22.8%
≤30d 12 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 25% -34.8%
≤90d 35 +8.6% -1.8% 37% 37% -17.9%
all 265 -8.8% -17.5% 39% 38% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 38% -9.6%
10% -25.4% 38% -18.2%
15% -32.6% 36% -26.1%
20% -39.2% 33% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$65 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

744d coverage
Net worth$264
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses104 / 161
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions9
Markets (closed)265 / 274
History coverage744d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 265 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 99¢ $50 $77 +$27 (+53%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $75 $62 −$13 (-18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $37 −$3 (-8%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $26 +$11 (+72%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $1 −$9 (-92%)
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $1 −$4 (-88%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $31 −$6 -19%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $67 −$8 -13%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $202 +$82 +41%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $82 −$17 -21%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $77 −$75 -97%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 27 $15 +$50 +333%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $168 +$85 +51%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 24 $26 −$4 -14%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 15 $263 +$147 +56%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 10 $170 +$68 +40%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 10 $30 +$20 +65%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 10 $71 +$46 +65%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 06 $10 +$40 +388%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 0 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 06 $10 +$61 +596%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 2 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 04 $50 +$38 +76%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? Apr 11 $110 −$108 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $150 −$148 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 11 $100 +$86 +86%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 07 $71 −$71 -100%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 04 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $25 −$25 -100%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks Mar 27 $250 +$162 +65%
Will Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gonzaga win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-7.5) Mar 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Mar 07 $10 +$40 +400%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 07 $50 +$35 +70%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 07 $100 +$61 +61%
Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-5.5) Mar 07 $50 −$50 -100%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Seton Hall Pirates Mar 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $20 +$68 +338%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Feb 28 $61 +$56 +92%
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) Feb 08 $125 −$2 -2%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 05 $113 +$56 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $25 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $29 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 7d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $46 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 8d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 8d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 8d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 11d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 13d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 15d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $19 15d
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 65¢ $51 18d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 18d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 18d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 18d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $36 18d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $29 18d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 18d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 18d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 18d
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 18d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 18d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 18d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 18d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 18d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $263.83 · official $263.83 (match) · 646 history records