Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:35:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd79c…9f33 sports 274 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,596 (-25%) realized −$4,585 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate20%53W / 214L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$328est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$287
7 days−$217
14 days−$184
30 days−$391
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$3,597
other 17% −$1,161
crypto 5% −$439
world 0% +$136
politics 0% −$4
weather 0% −$3
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-44.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -21.3% -28.8% 25% 19% -22.1%
≤30d 69 -17.1% -25.0% 28% 23% -18.3%
≤90d 193 -32.3% -38.7% 21% 19% -31.7%
all 267 -38.1% -44.0% 20% 18% -37.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.0% 18% -37.1%
10% -49.4% 17% -43.1%
15% -54.3% 16% -48.6%
20% -58.8% 16% -53.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$48 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$194
Realized−$4,585
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses53 / 214
Est. fees paid−$328
Open positions2
Markets (closed)267 / 274
History coverage120d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Japan 28¢ 26¢ $109 $103 −$5 (-5%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $97 $91 −$6 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 28 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 28 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $12 +$29 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 28 $7 +$5 +63%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 3 Canada? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 28 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 28 $85 −$78 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -96%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $544 −$29 -5%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $31 −$16 -51%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AN Jun 28 $30 +$33 +110%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $26 −$26 -98%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $19 +$17 +88%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $61 +$137 +223%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $147 −$82 -56%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $54 +$134 +248%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $8 −$7 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +7%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $19 +$135 +711%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $8 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $34 −$4 -11%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $45 −$44 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $17 +$31 +183%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $23 +$6 +24%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -98%
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Jun 20 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 +$46 +413%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $83 +$87 +105%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $51 −$10 -19%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $238 −$34 -14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$34 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $18 +$16 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $35 +$87 +249%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 26¢ $99 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Japan 26¢ $99 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 28¢ $1 8h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 28¢ $221 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $41 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $21 9h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $116 9h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $30 9h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 9h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $39 9h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 11h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $15 11h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 24¢ $26 28h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 12¢ $10 29h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $36 29h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $19 31h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 31h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? AND Will Colombia vs. Port BUY 6¢ $13 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.44 · official $194.44 (match) · 842 history records