Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:33:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D7 0xd7a2…ec50 politics 134 markets active 590d ago coverage 105d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 104d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$116,451,370 (+20690%) realized +$116,451,370 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -88% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -92% what you keep after slip
Net edge-92%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 126L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,200per market
Trades / day31.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 105d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 91% −$438,277
other 7% −$29,348
sports 1% −$4,786
economics 1% −$4,612
culture 0% −$728
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-89.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 134 -88.4% -89.5% 6% 0% -86.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -89.5% 0% -86.3%
10% -90.5% 0% -87.6%
15% ← realistic here -91.4% 0% -88.8%
20% -92.2% 0% -89.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 86% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -88% · $-wt -85% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$1,802) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -98% → late -79% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$3,793 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$116,451,370
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)134 / 134
History coverage105d ⚠
Avg bet$4,200
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 134 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the USA win Gold in Women's Basketball? Aug 11 $6,073 +$61 +1%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 1-4 Aug 09 $1,761 −$1,498 -85%
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 65-104 Aug 09 $1,347 −$1,294 -96%
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154 Aug 09 $1,488 −$1,466 -98%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34 Aug 08 $1,760 −$1,760 -100%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104 Aug 08 $1,636 −$1,636 -100%
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 0-4 Aug 08 $1,790 −$1,790 -100%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 155-214 Aug 08 $1,862 −$1,862 -100%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ Aug 08 $1,853 −$1,853 -100%
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 155-214 Aug 08 $1,855 −$1,855 -100%
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 15-34 Aug 08 $1,816 −$1,816 -100%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154 Aug 08 $1,819 −$1,819 -100%
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 215+ Aug 08 $1,869 −$1,869 -100%
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 35-64 Aug 08 $1,776 −$1,410 -79%
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 5-14 Aug 08 $1,828 −$1,828 -100%
Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election? Aug 08 $1,120 −$1,117 -100%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 5-14 Aug 08 $1,802 −$1,802 -100%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64 Aug 08 $1,740 −$1,740 -100%
Olympic Basketball: USA vs. Serbia Aug 08 $74 +$1 +1%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 08 $6,588 −$5,620 -85%
Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec Aug 08 $3,380 −$3,078 -91%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 08 $28,019 −$6,580 -24%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 08 $797 −$429 -54%
Will any other Republican Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec Aug 08 $2,586 −$2,311 -89%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 08 $4,964 −$3,612 -73%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 08 $27,303 −$6,004 -22%
Will Mark Cuban be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 07 $500 −$402 -80%
Will Wes Moore be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 07 $4,998 −$4,499 -90%
Will William McRaven be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 07 $4,309 −$4,267 -99%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Aug 07 $5,564 +$56 +1%
Will Roy Cooper be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 06 $26,066 −$26,040 -100%
Will Michelle Obama be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 03 $13,766 −$13,670 -99%
Will Gavin Newsom be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 02 $2,260 −$2,153 -95%
Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 02 $32,492 −$28,703 -88%
Will another woman be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 02 $10,182 −$10,045 -99%
Will another man be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 02 $34,456 −$33,525 -97%
Will Hillary Clinton be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 02 $33,243 −$32,387 -97%
Will Gretchen Whitmer be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 02 $27,541 −$26,195 -95%
Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 02 $44,250 −$41,576 -94%
Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 02 $40,769 −$37,768 -93%
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 02 $43,052 −$41,935 -97%
Will Mark Kelly be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 02 $33,214 −$29,064 -88%
Will J. B. Pritzker be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 02 $19,924 −$19,651 -99%
Will any other Democrat Politician win the popular vote in the 2024 Pr Aug 02 $632 +$11 +2%
Will RFK Jr. win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Aug 02 $797 −$792 -99%
Will Michelle Obama win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elec Aug 02 $1,588 −$1,579 -99%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Aug 02 $1,624 −$1,584 -98%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Aug 02 $1,022 −$50 -5%
Will Alexander Zverev (GER) win Gold in Men's Tennis? Aug 01 $784 −$684 -87%
Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency? Aug 01 $544 −$304 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 590d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 590d
Will Elizabeth Warren win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 590d
Will Elizabeth Warren win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 590d
Will Elizabeth Warren win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 590d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 590d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 590d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 590d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 590d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 590d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 590d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 590d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 590d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 590d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 590d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 590d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 590d
Will Chris Christie win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 591d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 592d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 592d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 592d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 592d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 592d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 592d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 592d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 592d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 592d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 592d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 592d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 592d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records