Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:21:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7a8…6423 crypto 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$114 (+9%) realized +$113 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%18W / 25L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day79.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$58
sports 10% +$170
other 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -14.4% -22.5% 42% 37% -0.6%
≤30d 43 -14.4% -22.5% 42% 37% -0.6%
≤90d 43 -14.4% -22.5% 42% 37% -0.6%
all 43 -14.4% -22.5% 42% 37% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.5% 37% -0.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.0% 37% -10.1%
15% -36.7% 30% -18.8%
20% -42.9% 21% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$14 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses18 / 25
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day79.0
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 48¢ 50¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$32 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$44 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $46 −$44 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $56 −$10 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $72 +$29 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $61 −$15 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $45 +$37 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $88 +$28 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$23 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $61 −$15 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $46 +$18 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$9 -44%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$11 -63%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 +$48 +158%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 +$42 +272%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $51 +$105 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$21 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$26 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $46 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $83 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $45 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $46 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $68 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $45 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $16 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $14 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $16 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $71 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $45 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $16 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $53 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $45 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $38 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $83 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $45 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $116 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $88 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $45 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.37 · official $48.12 · 94 history records