Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:07:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D7
0xd7a8…f86d
other · 64 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$31 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$12 · open +$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$85
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses25 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)55 / 64
History coverage147d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 9 History 55 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 4¢ 21¢ $5 $22 +$18 (+391%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will Sabrina Carpenter have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? No 70¢ 46¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-34%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? No 18¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $40 +$11 +26%
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? Jun 14 $1 $0 -22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $15 $0 +2%
Hugh Jackman as Wolverine? Jun 05 $11 −$1 -7%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t May 29 $5 +$3 +61%
Will Justin Bieber feature Nicki Minaj during his Coachella performanc Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? Apr 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less tha Apr 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elle Fanning win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awar Apr 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31? Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026? Apr 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? Apr 13 $12 +$2 +17%
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Apr 13 $4 +$2 +50%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 06 $7 +$4 +58%
Will DTMF (Bad Bunny) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY A Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 18 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Mar 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Anxiety (Doechii) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the USA Stripes team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will APT (Rosé and Bruno Mars) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minute Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 2026 BAFTA Awards? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 18 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Feb 25 $2 $0 -4%
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 25 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Feb 16 $5 +$4 +84%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Feb 16 $53 −$7 -14%
Will Emma Stone win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 16 $4 −$3 -71%
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 13 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Jace Yarbrough be the Republican Nominee for TX-32? Feb 12 $10 +$10 +99%
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 09 $4 +$1 +23%
Will I Like It be played at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 09 $5 +$5 +92%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 Feb 09 $5 −$2 -39%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $5 −$4 -87%
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? Feb 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded? Feb 05 $5 +$7 +136%
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30? Feb 04 $3 +$1 +20%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30? Feb 04 $4 $0 +8%
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68 Feb 02 $3 +$6 +212%
Will Wildflower (Billie Eilish) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annua Feb 02 $4 +$19 +484%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Feb 01 $10 +$7 +74%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 31 $1 $0 -3%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? Jan 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30? Jan 28 $12 −$9 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% −$20
culture 18% +$21
sports 12% +$10
crypto 11% $0
politics 8% +$16
tech 6% −$6
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 3h
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 3h
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? SELL Yes 51¢ $1 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $15 9d
Hugh Jackman as Wolverine? SELL Yes 81¢ $10 9d
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? BUY No 18¢ $13 56d
Will Justin Bieber feature Nicki Minaj during his Coachella performanc BUY Yes 3¢ $2 56d
Hugh Jackman as Wolverine? BUY Yes 86¢ $11 61d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t BUY No 62¢ $5 61d
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less tha BUY Yes 99¢ $15 61d
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? SELL Yes 70¢ $14 61d
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL Yes 60¢ $6 61d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 93¢ $11 68d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $15 87d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 108d
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 108d
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 108d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 108d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 59¢ $7 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.9% -7.8% 50% 50% +13.2%
≤30d 5 +12.1% +1.4% 60% 40% +6.7%
≤90d 28 -53.5% -58.0% 29% 21% -35.1%
all 55 -3.9% -13.1% 45% 38% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 38% -7.1%
10% -21.4% 35% -16.0%
15% -29.0% 27% -24.1%
20% -36.0% 24% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.88 · official $85.15 (match) · 128 history records