Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:33:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D7 0xd7ac…f764 other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$11,953 (+31%) realized +$11,970 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$1,434per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$1,533now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$10,011
sports 16% +$1,492
crypto 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -19.1% -26.8% 47% 47% +18.5%
≤30d 19 -19.1% -26.8% 47% 47% +18.5%
≤90d 19 -19.1% -26.8% 47% 47% +18.5%
all 19 -19.1% -26.8% 47% 47% +18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.8% 47% +18.5%
10% ← realistic here -33.8% 47% +7.2%
15% -40.2% 47% -3.2%
20% -46.0% 37% -12.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +31% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,526) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,995 vs −$644 · ×3.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,533
Realized+$11,970
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions8
Markets (closed)19 / 27
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1,434
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 62¢ 62¢ $300 $302 +$2 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $300 $292 −$8 (-2%)
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $200 $193 −$7 (-3%)
France leading at halftime? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Canada to win the second half? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Brazil leading at halftime? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 28 $102 −$102 -100%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 28 $252 −$252 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $710 −$710 -100%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 28 $3,036 +$1,936 +64%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $1,013 +$805 +79%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $3,026 +$1,190 +39%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3,027 +$1,259 +42%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $506 +$341 +67%
England leading at halftime? Jun 27 $1,011 −$1,011 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $204 −$204 -100%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 27 $409 −$409 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 27 $1,112 −$1,112 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $1,526 −$1,526 -100%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $203 +$273 +134%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $810 +$535 +66%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 26 $18,206 +$10,870 +60%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $1,017 −$1,017 -100%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 25 $869 +$748 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 62¢ $303 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 1h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 1h
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 1h
Canada to win the second half? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $304 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 73¢ $2,016 9h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,435 9h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 73¢ $252 9h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 68¢ $1,010 10h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1,013 10h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 60¢ $3,036 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 44¢ $203 12h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 13h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $304 13h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 13h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $203 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 70¢ $3,027 14h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 15h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 15h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 21h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $506 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $304 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,532.65 · official $1,532.65 (match) · 60 history records