Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:10:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7ad…9a00 other 252 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 240L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$14
14 days−$28
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$42
sports 23% −$19
politics 12% −$10
economics 8% −$4
culture 7% −$5
crypto 5% −$4
world 3% −$3
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 252 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 240
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)252 / 252
History coverage138d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 252 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $366 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $489 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $130 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $294 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $746 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 17 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $215 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $144 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $138 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $161 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $139 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $229 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $66 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $286 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $304 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $236 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $356 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $150 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $242 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $445 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $573 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $326 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $244 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $594 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $177 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $235 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $73 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 04 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $168 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $63 1h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $63 3h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 8h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 10h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $63 11h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 13h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $64 16h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $64 17h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 22h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 23h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 29h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 30h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $64 32h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $64 33h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $64 36h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $64 38h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $64 39h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $64 41h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 41h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 43h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 45h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 46h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $64 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $65 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $25 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $40 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $40 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1372 history records