Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:02:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7ae…f936 crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$43 (-3%) realized −$101 · open +$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$90
sports 15% +$83
other 13% −$106
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -21.6% -29.0% 43% 36% -20.6%
≤30d 28 -21.6% -29.0% 43% 36% -20.6%
≤90d 28 -21.6% -29.0% 43% 36% -20.6%
all 28 -21.6% -29.0% 43% 36% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.0% 36% -20.6%
10% ← realistic here -35.8% 21% -28.2%
15% -42.0% 14% -35.1%
20% -47.7% 7% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$26 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage5d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 4¢ 50¢ $5 $63 +$58 (+1162%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $134 −$134 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $30 −$10 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $209 +$31 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $111 −$43 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 22 $83 +$14 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $85 +$23 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $51 −$30 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $58 −$15 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $205 +$10 +5%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 +$66 +129%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $32 +$4 +12%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $87 −$51 -59%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $81 +$35 +43%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $25 +$46 +181%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $4 +$2 +50%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -61%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $49 −$48 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $6 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $7 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $0 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $0 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $9 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 55m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $20 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $132 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.12 · official $63.12 (match) · 132 history records