Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:41:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7b0…bd69 other 122 markets active 73d ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$55,481 (+6%) realized +$56,173 · open −$692
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate45%54W / 67L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$7,278per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$29,947
tech 12% +$8,982
crypto 6% +$19,723
economics 5% +$800
politics 4% +$650
finance 3% −$4,495
world 1% −$321
sports 1% +$297
weather 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 -80.3% -82.2% 0% 0% -82.2%
all 121 -11.8% -20.2% 45% 27% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 27% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 15% -13.0%
15% -34.8% 9% -21.4%
20% -41.2% 7% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -80% too few recent
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$8,048) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,701 vs −$533 · ×3.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.57 per $1 lost it wins $2.57
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$308
Realized+$56,173
Unrealized−$692
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses54 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage165d
Avg bet$7,278
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 41¢ 12¢ $1,000 $308 −$692 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 17 $2,000 −$1,606 -80%
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 04 $2,300 −$1,523 -66%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 3 Winner Jan 25 $2,300 +$538 +23%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jan 25 $500 −$344 -69%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jan 25 $500 +$335 +67%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Jan 25 $400 +$473 +118%
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs PARIVISION (+2.5) Jan 25 $2,000 +$529 +26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner Jan 25 $500 −$500 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs Jan 24 $551 −$460 -84%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jan 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $108 +$13 +12%
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $59,659 +$8,401 +14%
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $58,522 +$5,652 +10%
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $16,937 +$1,704 +10%
Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $4,983 −$283 -6%
Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $15,360 +$1,451 +9%
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $3,370 +$81 +2%
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $10,093 +$85 +1%
Over $140M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $1,405 +$128 +9%
Over $160M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $2,697 +$155 +6%
Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $4,033 +$926 +23%
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $21,856 +$2,862 +13%
Over $200M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $200 +$338 +169%
Over $180M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $200 −$24 -12%
Ranger FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jan 04 $1,000 −$47 -5%
Ranger FDV above $15M one day after launch? Jan 04 $998 −$30 -3%
Ranger FDV above $30M one day after launch? Jan 04 $518 −$51 -10%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $28,650 +$846 +3%
HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch? Dec 10 $2,542 +$171 +7%
HumidiFi FDV above $300M one day after launch? Dec 09 $668 −$316 -47%
HumidiFi FDV above $100M one day after launch? Dec 09 $16,102 +$2,910 +18%
HumidiFi FDV above $80M one day after launch? Dec 09 $7,003 +$448 +6%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 9? Dec 08 $450 −$420 -93%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 06 $8,048 +$795 +10%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 05 $50,000 −$753 -2%
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 05 $5,987 −$1,050 -18%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 05 $6,358 +$502 +8%
Will Elon Musk rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Dec 04 $9,943 +$3,103 +31%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 04 $90,441 +$9,574 +11%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Dec 02 $13,326 −$45 -0%
Will Kendrick Lamar rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Dec 01 $5,146 −$447 -9%
Will Shayne say "Polymarket" 5+ times during 60 Minutes? Dec 01 $1,204 +$168 +14%
Will Shayne say "UFC" or "Dana White" during 60 Minutes? Dec 01 $360 −$360 -100%
Will Shayne say "Ukraine" or "Gaza" during 60 Minutes? Dec 01 $230 −$230 -100%
Ranger FDV above $40M one day after launch? Nov 29 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? Nov 29 $4,372 −$61 -1%
Kinetiq FDV above $150M one day after launch? Nov 28 $16,042 −$1,694 -11%
Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch? Nov 28 $4,315 −$1,630 -38%
Kinetiq FDV above $250M one day after launch? Nov 27 $3,170 −$2,041 -64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 27? Nov 27 $1,780 +$1,784 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 17¢ $394 72d
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale? SELL Yes 27¢ $777 144d
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale? BUY Yes 83¢ $300 151d
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale? BUY Yes 80¢ $2,000 151d
Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,000 152d
Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 47¢ $500 152d
Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 35¢ $500 152d
Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,000 152d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 3 Winner SELL PARIVISION 100¢ $2,698 154d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 3 Winner BUY PARIVISION 69¢ $250 154d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 3 Winner BUY PARIVISION 74¢ $250 154d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 3 Winner BUY PARIVISION 73¢ $500 154d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 3 Winner BUY PARIVISION 76¢ $1,000 154d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 25¢ $156 154d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 27¢ $140 154d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $100 154d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $200 154d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) SELL PARIVISION 100¢ $835 154d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner SELL PARIVISION 100¢ $873 154d
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs PARIVISION (+2.5) SELL PARIVISION 100¢ $2,529 154d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $250 154d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 45¢ $200 154d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 79¢ $500 154d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 47¢ $200 154d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $250 154d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) BUY PARIVISION 60¢ $500 154d
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs PARIVISION (+2.5) BUY PARIVISION 79¢ $2,000 154d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs BUY Vitality $3 155d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs BUY Vitality 15¢ $35 155d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs BUY Vitality 47¢ $30 155d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $307.85 · official $307.85 (match) · 1881 history records