Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D7 0xd7b2…70f0 crypto 1365 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,630 (-28%) realized −$5,655 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%499W / 962L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day63.0pace
Fees−$218est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 51d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$1,105
crypto 39% −$1,106
other 2% +$208
weather 0% +$66
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 221 -71.7% -74.4% 10% 10% -27.7%
≤30d 576 -26.2% -33.2% 30% 29% -2.9%
≤90d 1461 -19.2% -26.9% 34% 32% -13.7%
all 1461 -19.2% -26.9% 34% 32% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.9% 32% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -33.9% 31% -22.0%
15% -40.2% 26% -29.5%
20% -46.1% 22% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$10 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$5,655
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses499 / 962
Est. fees paid−$218
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1461 / 1365
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day63.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1461 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 51¢ 76¢ $51 $76 +$26 (+50%)
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Tricked (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Online St Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $60 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 74¢ $44 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 57¢ $28 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 30¢ $15 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $100 13h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $45 16h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $23 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $61 24h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $70 35h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $33 35h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 38h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $59 41h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 15¢ $15 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 15¢ $0 2d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $63 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $5 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $6 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $14 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 57¢ $58 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 23¢ $6 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 23¢ $1 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 23¢ $4 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 31¢ $12 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 31¢ $19 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 47¢ $33 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.15 · official $76.15 · 3500 history records