Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:45:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7b6…2ccd crypto 1239 markets active 5d ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$129 (-2%) realized −$129 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%647W / 574L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day37.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$31
14 days−$80
30 days−$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$114
sports 5% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 184 -16.0% -24.0% 43% 41% -4.9%
≤30d 1051 -9.7% -18.3% 49% 48% -11.8%
≤90d 1221 -9.2% -17.9% 53% 48% -7.7%
all 1221 -9.2% -17.9% 53% 48% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 48% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 42% -16.5%
15% -32.9% 38% -24.6%
20% -39.5% 34% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses647 / 574
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1221 / 1239
History coverage52d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day37.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1221 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$3 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$4 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2658 history records