Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:58:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D7 0xd7b7…bf7f other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%4W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$1
other 43% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
all 19 -0.1% -9.6% 21% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses4 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage117d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $100 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $101 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $202 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 01 $101 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $203 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 22 $101 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $101 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $101 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $101 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $101 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $101 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $102 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $102 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $102 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Mar 18 $102 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $102 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $103 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $103 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $103 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $101 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 15h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $101 5d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $101 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $101 22d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 23d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 23d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $69 23d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $101 27d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $101 27d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $101 33d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $101 33d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $101 36d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $101 36d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $101 38d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $73 38d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 38d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $101 40d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $101 41d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $101 42d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $101 45d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $101 45d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $101 46d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $101 47d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $101 54d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $101 54d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $102 71d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $102 72d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $102 75d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $102 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records