Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:54:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D7 0xd7b7…3852 weather 1431 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$268 (+1%) realized +$284 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate90%1272W / 147L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$941
7 days−$144
14 days+$155
30 days+$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 63% +$24
sports 37% +$147
world 0% +$1
other 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 255 -2.9% -12.2% 67% 59% -11.6%
≤30d 347 +1.0% -8.6% 70% 62% -7.8%
≤90d 1419 +0.6% -9.0% 90% 17% -8.8%
all 1419 +0.6% -9.0% 90% 17% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 17% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 13% -17.5%
15% -25.6% 9% -25.5%
20% -32.9% 6% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$15 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized+$284
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses1272 / 147
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1419 / 1431
History coverage79d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1419 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs PlayTime 80¢ 81¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 AL East title? No 73¢ 78¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+6%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner LGD Gaming 81¢ 88¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+9%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner LGD Gaming 81¢ 86¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+7%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Team Nemesis 72¢ 89¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+24%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) T1 64¢ 62¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Team Refuser 63¢ 62¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Team Refuser 65¢ 64¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? No 51¢ 62¢ $6 $8 +$1 (+20%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage GenOne 50¢ 49¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group B 4ikibamboni 71¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs 100 Thieves 55¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $6 +$6 +93%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $15 +$9 +60%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $20 +$7 +34%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $16 +$9 +57%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $18 +$8 +46%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $17 +$10 +56%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 16 $20 +$7 +34%
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $15 −$14 -99%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $6 +$6 +97%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $18 −$18 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $21 +$9 +42%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-4.5) Jun 16 $18 +$6 +34%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $5 +$1 +11%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $7 +$5 +67%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 177.5 Jun 16 $18 −$18 -99%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-7.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5) Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open Jun 15 $64 −$64 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $64 −$64 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $74 −$74 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 15 $75 −$75 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 50¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL K27 100¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Team Nemesis 72¢ $14 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 65¢ $12 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 63¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 100¢ $12 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 57¢ $5 2h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY 4ikibamboni 71¢ $17 2h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 51¢ $6 3h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 64¢ $16 3h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 56¢ $6 4h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL Sashi Esport 100¢ $27 6h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 55¢ $6 6h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY PlayTime 80¢ $19 6h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $24 6h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 100¢ $26 6h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs SELL TDK 100¢ $27 6h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Ground Zero 100¢ $27 6h
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) BUY Vici Gaming 53¢ $5 6h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 74¢ $15 6h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 81¢ $17 7h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 81¢ $17 7h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 62¢ $15 7h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 63¢ $16 8h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 68¢ $18 8h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 51¢ $6 9h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 50¢ $6 10h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 75¢ $18 11h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 74¢ $20 12h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 74¢ $20 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.32 · official $143.32 (match) · 3129 history records