Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:20:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7b9…d36c world 40 markets active 2d ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-2%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate20%8W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$22
14 days−$23
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$23
other 31% −$6
sports 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
politics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -12.3% -20.7% 11% 0% -15.0%
≤30d 18 -6.2% -15.2% 11% 0% -12.2%
≤90d 18 -6.2% -15.2% 11% 0% -12.2%
all 40 -3.6% -12.8% 20% 2% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 2% -11.5%
10% -21.1% 2% -20.0%
15% -28.7% 2% -27.7%
20% -35.7% 2% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses8 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage250d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $28 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $45 −$1 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $96 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $45 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $25 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $40 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $32 −$2 -7%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $70 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $48 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $48 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $4 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $53 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $99 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Dec 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Dec 13 $12 +$8 +72%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $48 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $20 $0 -3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $70 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 10 $24 $0 +2%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Oct 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 09 $15 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 09 $24 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $1 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $27 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $28 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 44h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 24¢ $18 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $44 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $33 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $12 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $33 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $14 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $31 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $25 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $25 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $20 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $50 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $50 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $40 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records