Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
D7 0xd7bb…449e sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$8 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$205
other 37% −$65
world 12% −$230
crypto 5% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +40.8% +27.4% 50% 50% -10.4%
≤30d 10 +40.8% +27.4% 50% 50% -10.4%
≤90d 10 +40.8% +27.4% 50% 50% -10.4%
all 10 +40.8% +27.4% 50% 50% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.4% 50% -10.4%
10% +15.2% 50% -19.0%
15% +4.0% 50% -26.8%
20% -6.2% 50% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$193 vs −$197 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage5d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $164 $161 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $97 +$69 +71%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $244 −$240 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $102 −$24 -24%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $102 +$166 +162%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $446 −$440 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $313 +$179 +57%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$217 +213%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $235 −$230 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$336 +329%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $166 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $166 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $97 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $244 17h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 31¢ $78 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 65¢ $268 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 24¢ $102 18h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $446 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $313 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $319 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $235 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.79 · official $160.79 (match) · 17 history records