Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:11:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D7 0xd7be…e762 politics 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%16W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$11
politics 38% −$10
sports 8% +$24
crypto 5% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 118 +0.4% -9.2% 12% 7% -9.4%
all 131 -2.4% -11.7% 12% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 8% -9.5%
10% -20.1% 5% -18.2%
15% -27.8% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.9% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×7.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses16 / 115
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage115d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $188 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $320 $0 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $176 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $201 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $345 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $33 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $22 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $196 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $158 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $142 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $175 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $374 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $199 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $287 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $145 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $287 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $200 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $187 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $173 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $351 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $166 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $186 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $152 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 06 $193 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $142 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $171 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $176 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $340 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $306 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $287 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $373 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $155 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $188 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $156 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $209 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $157 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $144 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $187 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $145 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $163 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $173 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 8h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $18 14h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $18 16h
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 35h
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 2d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 6d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 7d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $33 13d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $33 13d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 13d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 15d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 15d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 21d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $22 21d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $22 21d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $196 27d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $196 27d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $158 28d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $158 29d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $197 30d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $197 30d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $142 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.99 · official $27.99 (match) · 370 history records