Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:20:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D7 0xd7be…539f world 218 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,774 (+11%) realized +$7,353 · open +$1,421
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate78%157W / 44L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$352per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$6,728now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days+$136
14 days+$584
30 days+$828
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% +$6,567
other 11% +$832
sports 3% +$1,137
politics 2% +$41
economics 1% +$6
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.0% -8.6% 75% 50% -7.4%
≤30d 14 +15.0% +4.1% 86% 57% -1.8%
≤90d 142 +7.7% -2.6% 77% 39% +0.9%
all 201 +9.4% -1.0% 78% 38% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 38% -0.1%
10% -10.5% 19% -9.6%
15% -19.1% 12% -18.4%
20% -27.1% 8% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$57 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.9 per $1 lost it wins $3.9
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$6,728
Realized+$7,353
Unrealized+$1,421
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses157 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions17
Markets (closed)201 / 218
History coverage110d
Avg bet$352
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 67¢ 100¢ $777 $1,152 +$375 (+48%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 38¢ 100¢ $350 $918 +$568 (+162%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $874 $882 +$8 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 74¢ 80¢ $740 $805 +$65 (+9%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 69¢ 84¢ $511 $628 +$117 (+23%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 58¢ 72¢ $406 $506 +$99 (+24%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $465 $494 +$29 (+6%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes 77¢ 84¢ $309 $337 +$28 (+9%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 72¢ 97¢ $204 $276 +$72 (+36%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $179 $185 +$6 (+3%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 82¢ 99¢ $112 $135 +$23 (+20%)
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 85¢ $125 $126 +$1 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 43¢ 94¢ $45 $99 +$54 (+118%)
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $86 $85 −$0 (-0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $94 $80 −$14 (-15%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $28 $20 −$8 (-29%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? No 33¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $136 −$80 -59%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $220 +$30 +14%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $104 −$31 -30%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $303 +$49 +16%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 15 $182 +$54 +30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $3,925 +$70 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $73 +$25 +34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $981 +$19 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $45 +$27 +61%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $325 +$83 +26%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $430 +$337 +78%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $2,018 +$142 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $761 +$57 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 21 $205 +$45 +22%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $370 +$130 +35%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 15 $280 +$19 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 11 $665 −$425 -64%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? May 10 $827 +$133 +16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027? May 10 $260 −$260 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 10 $638 +$112 +18%
Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026? May 04 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Iran strike Armenia by April 30, 2026? May 04 $79 +$1 +2%
Will Iran strike the United Kingdom by April 30, 2026? May 04 $108 +$1 +1%
Will Iran strike France by April 30, 2026? May 04 $111 +$2 +2%
Will Iran strike Georgia by April 30, 2026? May 04 $146 +$2 +1%
Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026? May 04 $145 +$4 +3%
Will Iran strike Cyprus by April 30, 2026? May 04 $149 +$4 +3%
Will Iran strike India by April 30, 2026? May 04 $696 +$9 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $518 +$6 +1%
Another EU country restricts U.S. military aircraft by April 30? May 01 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 01 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026? May 01 $35 +$11 +32%
Kash Patel out by April 30? May 01 $91 +$9 +10%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? May 01 $147 +$32 +22%
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by April 30, May 01 $290 +$23 +8%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 01 $930 +$336 +36%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? May 01 $1,136 +$52 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $1,679 +$226 +14%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 27 $63 +$9 +14%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 25 $561 +$356 +64%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 25 $587 +$419 +71%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $350 +$70 +20%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 21 $595 +$322 +54%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 21 $449 −$157 -35%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 21 $364 +$36 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 20 $431 +$63 +15%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 20 $238 +$79 +33%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Apr 18 $45 −$4 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 18 $296 +$16 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $28 +$5 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL No 26¢ $26 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL No 29¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL No 31¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL No 30¢ $30 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL No 52¢ $4 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL No 56¢ $5 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL No 70¢ $5 1h
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $50 29h
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $75 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $25 34h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $27 43h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $28 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 74¢ $740 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $45 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $93 2d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $94 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $28 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $48 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $58 2d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $19 2d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $29 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $857 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $36 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $36 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $7 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $0 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $874 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $179 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,727.97 · official $6,727.97 (match) · 2160 history records