Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:51:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D7 0xd7c4…511b other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 182d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$1,203 (+13%) realized +$1,226 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate59%16W / 11L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$539
7 days+$539
14 days+$539
30 days+$539
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$1,755
other 34% −$101
economics 7% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +56.5% +41.6% 43% 43% +132.8%
≤30d 7 +56.5% +41.6% 43% 43% +132.8%
≤90d 8 +36.9% +23.9% 38% 38% +2.7%
all 27 +28.5% +16.3% 59% 52% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.3% 52% +7.6%
10% +5.1% 41% -2.7%
15% -5.0% 33% -12.1%
20% -14.3% 26% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +37% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$81 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.89 per $1 lost it wins $2.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized+$1,226
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses16 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 33
History coverage182d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $51 +$176 +344%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 England? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 England? Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND New Zealand vs. Jun 27 $100 +$328 +328%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $102 +$125 +123%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $444 −$434 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $294 +$250 +85%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 21 $1,500 +$283 +19%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 21 $800 +$711 +89%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $151 −$151 -100%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Mar 14 $885 +$66 +7%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest? Mar 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $638 +$247 +39%
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premie Mar 07 $600 −$31 -5%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 06 $305 −$135 -44%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Feb 28 $100 +$26 +26%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 15 $600 +$72 +12%
Will Damian Lillard win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest? Feb 14 $20 +$81 +405%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 12 $643 −$3 -0%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded this season? Jan 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? Jan 13 $656 +$10 +2%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $574 +$82 +14%
Will Macclesfield FC win on 2026-01-10? Jan 10 $152 +$46 +30%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $78 +$29 +37%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $49 +$29 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 England? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 England? BUY Yes $21 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? AND Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY $50 3h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Panam BUY $50 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND BUY $100 3h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $227 18h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 19h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes $10 25h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 13¢ $100 28h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND New Zealand vs. BUY 23¢ $100 34h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY 37¢ $100 2d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 26¢ $444 84d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 93d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $544 97d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 54¢ $294 97d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 95¢ $1,783 98d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $1,500 98d
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 100¢ $1,511 98d
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 53¢ $800 98d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $151 105d
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $951 105d
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 93¢ $885 105d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $885 112d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 72¢ $638 112d
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premie SELL Yes 66¢ $569 112d
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premie BUY Yes 70¢ $600 113d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes $170 113d
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes 50¢ $126 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.31 · official $174.55 · 163 history records