Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:28:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7c6…7be7 weather 53 markets active 2d ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$28 (-1%) realized +$11 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate87%45W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$526now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$9
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$48
sports 20% −$14
weather 9% −$9
other 8% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -12.4% -20.7% 88% 0% -21.0%
≤30d 30 -3.2% -12.4% 93% 0% -12.2%
≤90d 48 -2.1% -11.4% 88% 0% -10.8%
all 52 -3.8% -13.0% 87% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 0% -10.7%
10% -21.3% 0% -19.2%
15% -28.9% 0% -27.0%
20% -35.9% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$526
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses45 / 7
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage108d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 50¢ 57¢ $263 $302 +$39 (+15%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 50¢ 42¢ $263 $224 −$39 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 65°F or below on June 9 Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on May 30? May 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 30? May 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on May 30? May 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May May 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in May? May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 28? May 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 61°F or below on May 28? May 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 28? May 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 28? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 28? May 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 28? May 28 $9 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $565 −$15 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 21? May 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on May May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on May 21? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on May 21? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 16? May 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on May 16? May 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 3°C on May 15? May 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on May 15? May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 63°F or below on May 9? May 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 25°F or below on May 9? May 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on May 9? May 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 19°C on May 9? May 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 28 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 24? Apr 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on April 24 Apr 28 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 23? Apr 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 24? Apr 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $42 $0 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $802 −$8 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $11 $0 -3%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Mar 11 $99 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $9 9d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 65°F or below on June 9 BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $9 9d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 9? BUY No 98¢ $9 9d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 19d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $8 19d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $9 19d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $7 19d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $7 19d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May BUY No 100¢ $9 19d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $9 20d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $8 20d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $7 20d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 61°F or below on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $9 20d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $9 20d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $6 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 40¢ $224 21d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 62¢ $341 22d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 28d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 28d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $9 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $526.00 · official $526.00 (match) · 201 history records