Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:33:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7c9…1ce9 crypto 74 markets active 0h ago coverage 201d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$188 (+3%) realized +$189 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%29W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days−$38
14 days−$38
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$139
other 13% −$242
sports 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -17.3% -25.1% 43% 39% -10.0%
≤30d 67 -17.3% -25.1% 43% 39% -10.0%
≤90d 68 -18.5% -26.2% 43% 38% -10.1%
all 73 -24.1% -31.3% 40% 36% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.3% 36% -11.0%
10% -37.9% 30% -19.5%
15% -43.9% 25% -27.3%
20% -49.4% 16% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$42 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$189
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses29 / 44
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage201d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $76 +$18 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $266 +$128 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$36 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$21 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $66 −$15 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$15 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$8 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $623 +$603 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $721 −$306 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $243 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $535 +$194 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $291 −$291 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1,214 +$243 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $308 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$52 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $255 +$100 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $132 −$19 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $57 +$24 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $154 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$10 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $92 −$72 -78%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $146 −$145 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $58 +$10 +17%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $148 +$82 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 +$40 +132%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$25 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $40 −$38 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $46 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $48 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $94 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $394 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $20 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.05 · official $45.05 (match) · 256 history records