Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:48:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7ca…ca95 other 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-0%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate10%14W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$16
14 days+$13
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$26
politics 24% −$67
sports 19% −$12
crypto 10% −$4
culture 4% −$2
finance 4% −$2
economics 3% −$1
world 3% +$39
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.9% -10.3% 12% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 65 +0.3% -9.2% 9% 2% -9.5%
≤90d 118 -0.8% -10.3% 9% 1% -10.0%
all 140 -0.7% -10.2% 10% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 1% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 1% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 1% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses14 / 126
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage103d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 92¢ 91¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $45 $0 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 20 $57 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $145 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $99 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $42 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 18 $5 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $54 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 18 $167 −$2 -1%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $55 −$1 -1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $66 −$1 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham Jun 17 $58 −$2 -4%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $73 $0 -0%
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $60 −$1 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $162 −$2 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $109 −$1 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $49 −$1 -2%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $220 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $113 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $452 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $206 −$2 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $59 +$39 +66%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $95 −$1 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $187 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $66 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $125 −$1 -1%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $60 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 09 $66 −$2 -3%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $0 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 06 $48 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $131 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 06 $46 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $46 −$1 -1%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $61 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $44 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $62 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $103 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 92¢ $56 51m
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $45 1h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $45 5h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $49 6h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $49 10h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 98¢ $48 10h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $49 16h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 95¢ $57 17h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 95¢ $17 22h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 95¢ $40 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $52 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $52 28h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $54 28h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $54 36h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 37h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 43h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $61 44h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $54 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $54 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $15 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 94¢ $1 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 94¢ $14 3d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $54 3d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $55 3d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 89¢ $65 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.02 · official $56.02 (match) · 476 history records