Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:11:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7ca…ebd1 other 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,573 (-14%) realized −$1,668 · open +$95
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%25W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$335now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$1,272
14 days−$1,302
30 days−$1,627
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% −$818
other 38% −$122
world 18% −$852
politics 4% −$149
crypto 1% +$228
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -24.3% -31.5% 34% 30% -22.2%
≤30d 68 -27.4% -34.3% 34% 29% -24.7%
≤90d 75 -27.9% -34.8% 33% 29% -25.6%
all 75 -27.9% -34.8% 33% 29% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.8% 29% -25.6%
10% -41.0% 25% -32.8%
15% -46.7% 19% -39.2%
20% -51.9% 12% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$76 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$335
Realized−$1,668
Unrealized+$95
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses25 / 50
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions3
Markets (closed)75 / 80
History coverage44d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Over 42¢ 92¢ $130 $283 +$153 (+118%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Over 40¢ 69¢ $30 $52 +$22 (+74%)
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $62 −$47 -76%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $350 +$130 +37%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $122 −$20 -16%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $82 −$60 -74%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 18 $51 −$21 -41%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $72 +$137 +192%
South Africa to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 18 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$66 +216%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $215 +$92 +43%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 −$47 -58%
Croatia to score first vs. England? Jun 17 $92 −$90 -98%
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? Jun 17 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $159 −$80 -50%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $266 +$291 +110%
Jordan to score first vs. Austria? Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $51 −$44 -87%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$7 -13%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $51 −$9 -17%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $155 −$41 -26%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $151 +$47 +31%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$17 -17%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $51 −$26 -51%
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $505 −$17 -4%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $401 +$33 +8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $426 −$120 -28%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $255 +$64 +25%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $805 −$82 -10%
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? Jun 15 $50 −$23 -47%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? Jun 15 $30 −$18 -61%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $356 −$156 -44%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $301 −$300 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $306 −$300 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $111 +$44 +40%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $808 +$412 +51%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $192 +$85 +44%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $143 +$228 +159%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $465 +$94 +20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $30 +$25 +82%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $221 −$148 -67%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $74 +$5 +6%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND Jun 14 $81 +$44 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 40¢ $31 40m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $51 41m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 2¢ $15 41m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 8¢ $62 44m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $41 1h
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $41 2h
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? BUY Yes 19¢ $41 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 100¢ $289 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 14¢ $21 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 86¢ $136 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 8¢ $21 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 3h
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? SELL Yes 18¢ $30 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $82 5h
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 5h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 29¢ $20 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 81¢ $209 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 27¢ $72 7h
South Africa to score first vs. Czechia? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 7h
South Africa to score first vs. Czechia? BUY Yes 32¢ $61 7h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 22¢ $72 25h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 58¢ $50 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 50¢ $157 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 22¢ $72 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 5¢ $17 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $61 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 49¢ $141 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $72 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $335.40 · official $338.44 (match) · 231 history records