Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D7 0xd7d3…698b sports 498 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14,241 (+11%) realized +$14,059 · open +$182
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%279W / 218L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day50.5pace
Fees−$2,120est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$382now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$269
7 days−$806
14 days−$1,399
30 days+$7,904
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$9,501
other 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +20.8% +9.3% 52% 51% -12.7%
≤30d 347 +13.0% +2.3% 57% 52% -1.1%
≤90d 497 +10.0% -0.5% 56% 53% -1.6%
all 497 +10.0% -0.5% 56% 53% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.5% 53% -1.6%
10% ← realistic here -10.0% 50% -11.0%
15% -18.7% 45% -19.6%
20% -26.7% 36% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$142 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$382
Realized+$14,059
Unrealized+$182
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses279 / 218
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$2,120
Open positions1
Markets (closed)497 / 498
History coverage45d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day50.5
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 497 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ 98¢ $200 $382 +$182 (+91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 162 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $200 +$394 +197%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $150 +$113 +75%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $201 +$202 +100%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $1,162 +$431 +37%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $721 −$102 -14%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $551 +$440 +80%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $1,417 −$629 -44%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $620 −$292 -47%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $1,176 +$1 +0%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $167 +$184 +110%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $504 +$300 +60%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $315 −$313 -100%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $463 −$462 -100%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $360 −$358 -99%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $1,374 −$1,351 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $126 −$123 -98%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $350 −$150 -43%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1,045 +$113 +11%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $305 +$40 +13%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $200 +$150 +75%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $407 +$287 +71%
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $7 +$1 +17%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $22 −$17 -78%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $252 +$169 +67%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $192 +$265 +138%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 +$120 +237%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $260 +$167 +64%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,300 +$453 +35%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $100 −$97 -97%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,176 −$157 -13%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $336 −$334 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $205 −$205 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $809 −$11 -1%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $208 −$105 -50%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $194 +$202 +105%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $486 +$166 +34%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $150 +$108 +72%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $365 +$159 +44%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $358 −$353 -99%
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $104 −$103 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $203 +$197 +97%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $200 +$138 +69%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $234 +$120 +51%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $150 −$21 -14%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 11 $35 −$1 -4%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $51 23m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $152 23m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $594 33m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 29¢ $50 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ $50 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 37¢ $94 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 37¢ $6 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $263 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 57¢ $150 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $404 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 49¢ $17 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 49¢ $1 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 49¢ $52 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 49¢ $2 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 49¢ $2 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 49¢ $1 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 49¢ $25 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ $102 3h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Spirit Academy 100¢ $468 13h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 52¢ $101 14h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 54¢ $152 14h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Flame Team 75¢ $65 15h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Flame Team 75¢ $2 15h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Flame Team 75¢ $130 15h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Flame Team 75¢ $127 15h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Flame Team 75¢ $46 15h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Flame Team 75¢ $4 15h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Flame Team 75¢ $50 15h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Flame Team 75¢ $5 15h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Flame Team 75¢ $3 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $382.35 · official $386.27 · 2317 history records