Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D7 0xd7d6…a9fe sports 265 markets active 6h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$80 (+7%) realized +$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate59%154W / 108L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$5
14 days−$20
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$73
sports 46% +$10
world 1% −$10
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +10.5% +0.0% 56% 54% -7.0%
≤30d 100 +7.9% -2.4% 56% 55% -3.9%
≤90d 262 +10.0% -0.5% 59% 58% -2.9%
all 262 +10.0% -0.5% 59% 58% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 58% -2.9%
10% -10.0% 55% -12.2%
15% -18.7% 48% -20.7%
20% -26.7% 39% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses154 / 108
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)262 / 265
History coverage59d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 262 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 +$12 +388%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $5 +$3 +55%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $2 +$1 +67%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$2 +48%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +38%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +102%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -44%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$7 +66%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 +$8 +393%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 +$11 +109%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $16 −$7 -45%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$14 +140%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$9 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -49%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$6 -63%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$17 -85%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$9 -34%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $5 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 9h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 78¢ $5 32h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 59¢ $2 41h
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) BUY South Africa 82¢ $5 41h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 41h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $5 41h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 13¢ $3 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 45¢ $1 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $5 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 2d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 51¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $5 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 56¢ $5 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $5 3d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 59¢ $5 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 31¢ $5 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $10 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $10 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $5 4d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 62¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.98 · official $8.98 (match) · 511 history records