Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:36:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

D7 0xd7d7…c515 sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,431 (-79%) realized −$1,431 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR55%break-even

Win rate55%12W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$75per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$3

7 days+$1

14 days+$8

30 days+$4

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +55%

net ROI/market (all)-12.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+26.3%	+14.2%	50%	50%	-1.6%
≤30d	19	-6.1%	-15.0%	53%	53%	-2.2%
≤90d	22	-3.6%	-12.7%	55%	55%	-84.7%
all	22	-3.6%	-12.7%	55%	55%	-84.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-12.7%	55%	-84.7%
10%	-21.1%	55%	-86.1%
15%	-28.7%	55%	-87.5%
20%	-35.7%	27%	-88.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 81% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -83% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -4% · $-wt -83% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -22% → late +15% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$157 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.09 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage

Net worth$87

Realized−$1,431

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses12 / 10

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)22 / 24

History coverage90d

Avg bet$75

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	99¢	99¢	$79	$79	+$0 (+0%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5	Under	58¢	58¢	$3	$3	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)	Jun 16	$2	+$3	+172%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5	Jun 13	$2	−$2	-100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5	Jun 11	$3	−$3	-99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5	Jun 11	$2	+$3	+133%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5	Jun 09	$4	+$2	+42%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5	Jun 04	$4	+$3	+72%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5	Jun 03	$6	+$2	+45%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5	Jun 02	$4	+$2	+49%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5	May 31	$2	−$2	-98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5	May 30	$2	−$2	-100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5	May 30	$4	+$2	+49%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5	May 28	$2	−$2	-98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5	May 27	$3	+$2	+70%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5	May 26	$4	+$1	+38%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5	May 24	$2	−$2	-100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5	May 24	$3	+$3	+114%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5	May 21	$2	−$2	-98%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5	May 19	$2	−$2	-98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5	May 18	$2	−$2	-98%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)	May 16	$3	+$2	+44%
Raptors vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5	Mar 19	$119	+$109	+92%
Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5	Mar 18	$1,547	−$1,547	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5	BUY Under	58¢	$3	1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)	BUY Philadelphia Phillies	36¢	$2	31h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5	BUY Under	39¢	$0	3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5	BUY Under	39¢	$2	3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5	BUY Over	58¢	$3	5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5	BUY Under	43¢	$0	7d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5	BUY Under	43¢	$2	7d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5	BUY Over	70¢	$4	8d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5	BUY Under	58¢	$0	13d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5	BUY Under	58¢	$4	13d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5	BUY Under	69¢	$4	14d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5	BUY Under	69¢	$2	14d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5	BUY Under	67¢	$4	15d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5	BUY Under	67¢	$0	15d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	29¢	$2	16d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5	BUY Over	38¢	$2	17d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5	BUY Under	67¢	$4	18d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5	BUY Over	36¢	$2	19d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5	BUY Over	58¢	$3	21d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5	BUY Over	72¢	$4	22d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5	BUY Over	31¢	$2	23d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5	BUY Over	46¢	$3	24d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5	BUY Over	35¢	$2	26d
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5	BUY Over	49¢	$2	28d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5	BUY Over	34¢	$2	29d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)	BUY Colorado Rockies	69¢	$3	31d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY No	99¢	$79	31d
Raptors vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5	BUY Over	52¢	$119	89d
Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5	BUY Under	52¢	$82	89d
Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5	BUY Under	52¢	$1,465	89d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.38 · official $87.38 (match) · 73 history records