Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:17:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7da…2700 other 1252 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (2981 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$846 (+282%) realized −$578 · open +$1,424
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate5%18W / 365L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$0per market
Trades / day2981.0pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,454now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$957
crypto 48% +$714
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2981 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 383 -9.1% -17.7% 5% 5% -43.0%
≤30d 383 -9.1% -17.7% 5% 5% -43.0%
≤90d 383 -9.1% -17.7% 5% 5% -43.0%
all 383 -9.1% -17.7% 5% 5% -43.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2981.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 5% -43.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 5% -48.5%
15% -32.8% 5% -53.4%
20% -39.4% 5% -58.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +43% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +82% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$0 · ×29.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,454
Realized−$578
Unrealized+$1,424
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses18 / 365
Open positions135
Markets (closed)383 / 1252
History coverage1d
Avg bet$0
Trades / day2981.0
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 135 History 383 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $1 $50 +$49 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $1 $49 +$48 (+4850%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $1 $49 +$48 (+4850%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $0 $20 +$20 (+4900%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $0 $20 +$20 (+4900%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $0 $20 +$20 (+4900%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $0 $20 +$20 (+4900%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $0 $20 +$20 (+4900%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $0 $20 +$20 (+4900%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $0 $20 +$20 (+4900%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $0 $20 +$20 (+4900%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $0 $20 +$20 (+4900%)
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $0 $15 +$15 (+4950%)
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $0 $15 +$15 (+4950%)
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $0 $15 +$15 (+4950%)
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $0 $15 +$15 (+4950%)
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $0 $15 +$15 (+4950%)
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $0 $15 +$15 (+4950%)
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $0 $15 +$15 (+4950%)
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $0 $15 +$15 (+4950%)
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $0 $15 +$15 (+4950%)
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $0 $15 +$15 (+4950%)
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $0 $15 +$15 (+4950%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $0 $15 +$15 (+4900%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $0 $15 +$15 (+4900%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 365 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2m
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2m
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 8m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 8m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 8m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,454.39 · official $1,454.53 (match) · 3000 history records