Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:37:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D7 0xd7db…569d other 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$161 (+5%) realized +$271 · open −$110
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate76%42W / 13L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$800now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$54
14 days+$119
30 days+$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$42
sports 24% +$103
politics 4% −$12
world 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +15.9% +4.9% 80% 60% +7.7%
≤30d 20 +20.4% +9.0% 70% 40% +4.9%
≤90d 55 +10.8% +0.3% 76% 53% -0.8%
all 55 +10.8% +0.3% 76% 53% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 53% -0.8%
10% -9.3% 22% -10.3%
15% -18.1% 13% -19.0%
20% -26.1% 9% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$15 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$800
Realized+$271
Unrealized−$110
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses42 / 13
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions21
Markets (closed)55 / 76
History coverage84d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 31¢ $320 $254 −$66 (-21%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $40 $57 +$17 (+42%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 26¢ $30 $51 +$21 (+70%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 46¢ 46¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 77¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Mbappe vs. Kane Kane 23¢ 30¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+33%)
Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 26¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $25 −$15 (-37%)
Will Mohamed Salah play in Saudi Pro League next? Yes 76¢ 50¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-34%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 55¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-39%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Will Julio Enciso score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-43%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $1 −$29 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $40 −$1 -3%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $61 +$21 +35%
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 24 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $131 +$27 +21%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 18 $21 −$12 -58%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 +$58 +280%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $131 +$21 +16%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $71 −$3 -5%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31? Jun 15 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 11 $80 +$17 +22%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 04 $50 +$15 +29%
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $61 $0 -0%
Will Massimiliano Allegri be the next manager of SSC Napoli? May 28 $40 +$6 +16%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 27 $30 +$10 +33%
Will Enzo Maresca be the next manager of Manchester City FC? May 27 $60 +$2 +4%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? May 27 $30 +$5 +17%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga seaso May 25 $90 +$20 +22%
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League May 24 $40 +$23 +58%
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? May 24 $20 +$31 +152%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 24 $30 +$5 +16%
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026? May 22 $100 +$12 +12%
Will AC Milan finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? May 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premie May 20 $50 +$12 +25%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 19 $70 −$17 -24%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Manchester United finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Prem May 17 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 17 $10 +$14 +138%
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 16 $21 +$9 +42%
Will Michael Olise have the most assists during the 2025-26 Bundesliga May 16 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standing May 15 $63 +$11 +17%
Will David Raya be the goalkeeper with the most clean sheets in the 20 May 10 $110 +$2 +2%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? May 08 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Carlos Alcaraz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? May 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Manchester City finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 04 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 03 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? May 03 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 03 $43 +$18 +42%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem May 01 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 25 $30 −$24 -79%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 17 $155 +$22 +14%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $30 +$18 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $41 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 46¢ $30 1h
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World BUY Yes 50¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 1h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 1h
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 1h
World Cup Goals H2H: Mbappe vs. Kane BUY Kane 23¢ $20 26h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 26h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $39 26h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes $9 8d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $22 10d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 25¢ $78 10d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 28¢ $20 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $28 12d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 88¢ $31 12d
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31? SELL No 94¢ $99 12d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $82 14d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $112 17d
Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA BUY Yes 31¢ $31 18d
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 18d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 18d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 18d
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31? BUY No 95¢ $100 19d
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 19d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 19d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 19d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 84¢ $30 19d
Will Julio Enciso score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 19d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 19d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $799.58 · official $792.42 (match) · 211 history records