Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:42:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7e0…c1bb politics 248 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$252 (-2%) realized +$104 · open −$356
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%99W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$412now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$129
14 days−$1,103
30 days−$678
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% +$357
sports 24% −$431
world 22% +$1,194
other 9% −$423
crypto 9% −$1,087
tech 3% +$35
finance 0% −$3
economics 0% +$5
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -58.0% -62.0% 22% 19% -24.5%
≤30d 148 -8.7% -17.4% 49% 45% -17.0%
≤90d 225 -14.3% -22.5% 44% 39% -9.5%
all 225 -14.3% -22.5% 44% 39% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 39% -9.5%
10% -29.9% 33% -18.2%
15% -36.7% 23% -26.1%
20% -42.9% 20% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$27 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$412
Realized+$104
Unrealized−$356
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses99 / 126
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions22
Markets (closed)225 / 248
History coverage66d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes 62¢ 80¢ $50 $64 +$14 (+29%)
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? No 41¢ 28¢ $93 $62 −$31 (-33%)
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? No 39¢ 36¢ $66 $61 −$5 (-8%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? No 59¢ 64¢ $54 $58 +$4 (+8%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% and 9%? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 80¢ 14¢ $84 $15 −$69 (-82%)
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? No 23¢ 40¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+76%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 70¢ 11¢ $42 $7 −$35 (-84%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Yes 70¢ 10¢ $35 $5 −$30 (-86%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? Yes 71¢ 12¢ $27 $5 −$22 (-83%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 32¢ 36¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+12%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? No 19¢ 20¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 2¢ 0¢ $45 $4 −$41 (-92%)
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June? No 11¢ 2¢ $21 $3 −$18 (-86%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 23¢ 7¢ $5 $1 −$3 (-69%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 65¢ 1¢ $99 $1 −$98 (-99%)
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in June? No 14¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $64 −$4 -6%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 16 $163 +$55 +34%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 203.5 Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% an Jun 16 $26 −$2 -6%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $27 +$22 +82%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in June? Jun 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $119 +$31 +26%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $51 +$29 +56%
China PR vs. Thailand: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Philippines vs. Myanmar end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Niger vs. Mauritania: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2026-06-08? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Comoros win on 2026-06-08? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 11 $19 −$19 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $14 +$6 +48%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 09 $68 +$32 +47%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $9 −$8 -92%
Will Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$4 -76%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$4 -98%
Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $13 −$3 -24%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 202.5 Jun 09 $32 +$8 +26%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 204.5 Jun 09 $19 +$6 +31%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 08 $22 −$22 -100%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $5 +$5 +83%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $7 +$13 +206%
Will Greece vs. Italy end in a draw? Jun 08 $22 +$8 +36%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $222 +$13 +6%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $8 +$7 +97%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 08 $23 +$7 +32%
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $53 +$31 +60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $22 +$18 +81%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Wisconsin even Jun 06 $15 +$30 +204%
Will Trump say "Beef" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $7 +$13 +167%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 32¢ $4 56m
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 65¢ $39 1h
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $60 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% an SELL Yes 19¢ $24 4h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $2 22h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $13 22h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $10 22h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $20 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $64 35h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $5 36h
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? SELL No 17¢ $20 45h
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in June? SELL No 13¢ $27 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 43¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $4 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 BUY Over 81¢ $90 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 203.5 BUY Over 80¢ $14 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 81¢ $109 3d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% an BUY Yes 20¢ $5 5d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $1 5d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? BUY No 59¢ $55 5d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% an BUY Yes 20¢ $5 6d
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 7d
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $12 7d
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 7d
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $67 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $411.87 · official $411.89 (match) · 791 history records