Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:15:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7e6…6dfd politics 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 653d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$57 (-1%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate66%31W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$80
7 days−$80
14 days−$80
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 87% +$22
sports 7% −$95
other 3% +$15
crypto 2% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -5.3% -14.3% 90% 10% -24.5%
≤30d 22 -4.8% -13.8% 86% 9% -23.8%
≤90d 22 -4.8% -13.8% 86% 9% -23.8%
all 47 -4.5% -13.6% 66% 17% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 17% -10.5%
10% -21.9% 4% -19.0%
15% -29.4% 2% -26.9%
20% -36.3% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

653d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses31 / 16
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)47 / 56
History coverage653d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will xAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Moonshot have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will DeepSeek have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Google have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $99 +$2 +2%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $97 +$2 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $60 +$15 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $53 +$34 +65%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will "In Her Shoes" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 May 25-31? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 25-31? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 May 25-31? Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 May 25-31? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 30? Jun 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will "Untold UK: Vinnie Jones" be the #2 global Netflix movie this wee Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $26 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 8? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Feb 13 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 11 $14 +$2 +12%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 10 $12 +$1 +12%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 09 $65 +$9 +14%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Feb 06 $35 +$5 +14%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 02 $28 +$4 +14%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 10 $97 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April? Oct 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April? Oct 22 $56 $0 +0%
Will Biden pardon Fauci? Apr 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Apr 14 $93 +$3 +4%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jan 17 $5 −$5 -93%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Dec 16 $93 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Oct 18 $619 +$1 +0%
Will a Democrat win Vermont US Senate Election? Sep 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will a Republican win Alabama Presidential Election? Sep 28 $1,638 $0 +0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Sep 28 $618 $0 -0%
Will a Democrat win New Jersey Presidential Election? Sep 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will a Republican win Wyoming Presidential Election? Sep 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will a Republican win West Virginia Presidential Election? Sep 28 $1,318 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $103 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $101 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 98¢ $99 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $99 2h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 98¢ $97 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $27 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $3 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $34 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $53 13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $60 13h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 80¢ $68 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 3d
Will Moonshot have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 3d
Will Google have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will xAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 3d
Will DeepSeek have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 14d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $2 17d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 17d
Will "In Her Shoes" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? BUY No 100¢ $1 17d
Will "Untold UK: Vinnie Jones" be the #2 global Netflix movie this wee BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 17d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 17d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $2 17d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $8 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.66 · official $49.66 (match) · 302 history records