Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:54:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D7 0xd7e7…b65e world 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$96 (-1%) realized −$322 · open +$226
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$406per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,831now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$197
7 days−$197
14 days−$197
30 days−$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$50
other 32% −$152
world 3% −$117
tech 0% +$2
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -8.3% -17.0% 0% 0% -17.0%
≤30d 2 -54.2% -58.5% 0% 0% -17.1%
≤90d 11 -20.4% -28.0% 45% 9% -13.4%
all 15 -24.3% -31.5% 40% 7% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 7% -17.9%
10% -38.1% 0% -25.7%
15% -44.0% 0% -32.9%
20% -49.5% 0% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$62 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$1,831
Realized−$322
Unrealized+$226
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage203d
Avg bet$406
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $1,605 $1,831 +$226 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $2,375 −$197 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? May 19 $177 +$23 +13%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 16 $1,329 +$13 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $5 $0 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026? Mar 27 $19 +$2 +9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Mar 27 $18 +$1 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 27 $10 −$2 -14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$75 in March? Mar 23 $15 −$5 -32%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 21 $141 −$110 -79%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Dec 30 $211 +$7 +3%
No airdrop in 2025? Dec 30 $214 −$77 -36%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 30 $330 −$95 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $69 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $304 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $61 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $312 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $44 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $73 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $908 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $168 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $200 30d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $67 33d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $39 33d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $3 33d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $98 33d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $1 33d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $31 33d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $7 34d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $448 34d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $50 34d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $11 34d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $1 34d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $59 34d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $10 34d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $56 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,830.98 · official $1,831.63 (match) · 182 history records