Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:50:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D7 0xd7ea…dd4e sports 401 markets active 2h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,256 (+1%) realized +$6,244 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate72%281W / 109L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$1,174per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$7,512now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$563
14 days+$990
30 days+$639
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$3,435
sports 19% −$1,122
tech 13% +$11,935
politics 7% −$458
world 6% −$498
crypto 3% +$8
finance 1% +$377
weather 1% −$19
economics 1% −$679
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +5.4% -4.7% 89% 44% -6.2%
≤30d 39 -2.6% -11.9% 79% 33% -7.9%
≤90d 70 -12.5% -20.8% 73% 26% -11.9%
all 390 -5.4% -14.4% 72% 21% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 21% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 10% -16.7%
15% -30.1% 5% -24.7%
20% -36.9% 4% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$940) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$276 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$7,512
Realized+$6,244
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses281 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions11
Markets (closed)390 / 401
History coverage245d
Avg bet$1,174
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 390 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 97¢ 96¢ $3,000 $2,992 −$8 (-0%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $1,500 $1,525 +$25 (+2%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 97¢ 97¢ $800 $799 −$1 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $700 $707 +$7 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 88¢ 90¢ $300 $309 +$9 (+3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? No 87¢ 86¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-2%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 86¢ 78¢ $200 $180 −$20 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$15 +14%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,001 +$38 +4%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $1,011 −$411 -41%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $101 −$60 -60%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $201 +$32 +16%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $502 +$71 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,003 +$120 +12%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,002 +$82 +4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$34 +17%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $402 +$84 +21%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $301 +$25 +8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $201 +$32 +16%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $802 +$77 +10%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 $0 -0%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $501 +$37 +7%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $501 +$53 +10%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $300 +$10 +3%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Jun 16 $2,172 +$87 +4%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $502 +$63 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 +$37 +18%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $300 +$7 +2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $501 +$34 +7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $301 +$18 +6%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,501 +$36 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $6,014 +$557 +9%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $501 +$43 +8%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 14 $202 −$74 -37%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,003 +$120 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $503 −$500 -99%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $1,101 +$20 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4,514 +$361 +8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $2,010 −$367 -18%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 06 $301 +$34 +11%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $3,007 +$192 +6%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $507 −$210 -41%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 20 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $1,502 +$85 +6%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $100 +$12 +12%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $25 +$19 +76%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $103 −$94 -92%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $1,000 +$11 +1%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 14 $1,002 +$45 +4%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 14 $4,005 +$119 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 97¢ $801 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 87¢ $201 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 97¢ $3,003 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $84 7h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $41 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 86¢ $100 13h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 86¢ $100 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $301 13h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 87¢ $100 15h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $201 15h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $101 15h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $200 29h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $801 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 34h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $201 37h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 37h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $51 37h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $501 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 40h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $101 40h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $102 40h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $1,502 40h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $201 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 44h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $101 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $301 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $201 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $301 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $501 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 74¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,512.48 · official $7,512.48 (match) · 2429 history records