Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:17:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7ea…ea62 world 220 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$682 (-1%) realized +$49 · open −$731
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate57%104W / 78L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$380per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$4,482now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$225
7 days+$224
14 days+$958
30 days−$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$1,628
politics 15% +$42
other 9% +$48
sports 6% −$613
crypto 5% +$737
tech 4% +$307
culture 1% +$115
economics 1% +$13
finance 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +13.9% +3.1% 67% 47% -7.7%
≤30d 146 -5.3% -14.3% 58% 35% -9.8%
≤90d 182 -6.5% -15.4% 57% 37% -9.9%
all 182 -6.5% -15.4% 57% 37% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 37% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 23% -18.5%
15% -30.9% 16% -26.4%
20% -37.7% 9% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$81 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$4,482
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$731
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses104 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions37
Markets (closed)182 / 220
History coverage59d
Avg bet$380
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 70¢ 69¢ $490 $486 −$4 (-1%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $375 $370 −$5 (-1%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 57¢ 62¢ $246 $265 +$19 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 49¢ 40¢ $296 $237 −$59 (-20%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 28¢ 25¢ $222 $200 −$22 (-10%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 98¢ $178 $196 +$17 (+10%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 90¢ $134 $181 +$47 (+35%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $161 $178 +$17 (+11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 24¢ 27¢ $157 $175 +$18 (+11%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 87¢ $184 $175 −$9 (-5%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 40¢ 52¢ $120 $154 +$34 (+29%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 76¢ $92 $153 +$61 (+66%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 49¢ 70¢ $98 $141 +$43 (+44%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 54¢ 66¢ $108 $133 +$25 (+23%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 87¢ 86¢ $130 $129 −$1 (-1%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 67¢ 79¢ $107 $126 +$19 (+18%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 61¢ 63¢ $122 $125 +$3 (+3%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 57¢ 60¢ $114 $119 +$5 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 67¢ 72¢ $100 $109 +$8 (+8%)
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $120 $108 −$12 (-10%)
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $108 $106 −$2 (-2%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 69¢ 52¢ $138 $105 −$33 (-24%)
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? Yes 66¢ 55¢ $99 $82 −$17 (-17%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 59¢ 52¢ $88 $77 −$11 (-13%)
FDA approves Viridian Therapeutics' Veligrotug? Yes 69¢ 74¢ $69 $74 +$5 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 21 $2,087 −$338 -16%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $448 +$15 +3%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $270 +$27 +10%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $90 +$9 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $117 +$378 +323%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $118 +$13 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 20 $18 +$3 +18%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 20 $69 +$30 +44%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m Jun 20 $150 +$88 +59%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $216 +$84 +39%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $178 +$134 +75%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $540 +$172 +32%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $58 +$42 +72%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 17 $213 −$213 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 +$64 +105%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$69 +134%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $72 −$72 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $761 −$137 -18%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $119 −$119 -100%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 16 $361 +$11 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $51 −$3 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2,791 +$135 +5%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 15 $110 +$40 +37%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $57 +$45 +79%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 15 $172 +$49 +29%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $46 +$9 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 15 $59 +$30 +50%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $1,101 −$270 -24%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $95 +$186 +196%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $184 +$16 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $50 +$15 +29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,442 +$133 +9%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $580 −$49 -8%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $69 +$29 +42%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $160 +$1 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $520 +$32 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $130 +$20 +16%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $261 +$34 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $322 +$39 +12%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $166 −$166 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $64 −$64 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $6,691 +$95 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $183 +$17 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $98 49m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $194 51m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 59¢ $175 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 55¢ $165 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $406 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $297 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 70¢ $86 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 70¢ $5 2h
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $99 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 10h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes 24¢ $15 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 67¢ $90 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 67¢ $2 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 67¢ $1 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 67¢ $5 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 67¢ $2 14h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes 24¢ $0 15h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes 24¢ $3 15h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes 24¢ $12 15h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes 24¢ $1 15h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes 24¢ $7 15h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? BUY Yes 66¢ $99 16h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY No 23¢ $23 16h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY No 23¢ $0 16h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY No 23¢ $0 16h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY No 23¢ $0 16h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY No 23¢ $0 16h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY No 23¢ $0 16h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes 23¢ $13 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,481.97 · official $4,482.06 (match) · 2040 history records