Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:53:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7ee…a3ba world 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% $0
other 29% +$5
finance 2% $0
sports 2% −$25
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 26 -0.3% -9.8% 42% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 32 -1.4% -10.8% 38% 0% -9.7%
all 40 -1.1% -10.5% 38% 8% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 8% -10.3%
10% -19.1% 8% -18.9%
15% -26.9% 8% -26.7%
20% -34.1% 5% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage527d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $32 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $32 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $64 −$3 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $58 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $22 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $69 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $48 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $15 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $56 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $32 −$3 -10%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $35 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $5 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $60 +$2 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $39 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $53 +$1 +1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $247 −$1 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $291 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 13 $246 +$1 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 12 $247 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 12 $6 −$2 -30%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 11 $8 −$1 -7%
Tulsa vs. Temple Feb 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Heat vs. Nets Feb 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the January unemployment rate be 4.2%? Feb 08 $5 +$2 +47%
Will the Chiefs beat the Texans by 9 or more points? Feb 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be less than 400k rides on the DC metro on Jan 20? Feb 04 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Brian Robinson Jr. score a touchdown? Feb 04 $4 +$9 +194%
Will there be 400-500k rides on the DC metro on Jan 20? Jan 21 $2 $0 +0%
OG Shoots vs. Easy Jan 18 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $36 13m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $36 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $33 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $32 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $30 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $27 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $35 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $28 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $36 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $21 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $22 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $18 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $18 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $11 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 144 history records