Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:32:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D7 0xd7f0…b150 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$74 (+25%) realized +$75 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$42
14 days+$52
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$55
sports 12% +$15
crypto 4% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +52.3% +37.8% 100% 100% +22.1%
≤30d 5 +60.5% +45.2% 100% 100% +28.6%
≤90d 12 +11.0% +0.4% 67% 67% +24.8%
all 12 +11.0% +0.4% 67% 67% +24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 67% +24.8%
10% -9.2% 50% +12.8%
15% -18.0% 50% +1.9%
20% -26.0% 42% -8.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×4.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.5 per $1 lost it wins $9.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$75
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage39d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $91 +$17 +18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $29 +$25 +86%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $12 +$10 +83%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$5 +48%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 30 $13 +$9 +67%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? May 28 $10 +$2 +22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 22 $1 $0 -40%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 21 $5 +$3 +54%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 21 $11 +$10 +93%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants May 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $91 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 29d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $12 29d
New York Yankees vs. Athletics BUY New York Yankees 59¢ $13 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? SELL Yes $1 37d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $29 39d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $8 39d
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 100¢ $21 39d
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 51¢ $11 39d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants BUY No 52¢ $2 39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? BUY No 81¢ $10 39d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 39d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ $5 39d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $5 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.62 · official $104.62 (match) · 25 history records