Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:47:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7f1…7107 weather 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$251 (-14%) realized −$239 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate62%29W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$12
14 days−$107
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$275
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -9.8% -18.4% 71% 50% -11.8%
≤30d 34 -12.6% -20.9% 62% 44% -18.1%
≤90d 47 -14.4% -22.6% 62% 45% -23.8%
all 47 -14.4% -22.6% 62% 45% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 45% -23.8%
10% -30.0% 26% -31.1%
15% -36.8% 17% -37.7%
20% -43.0% 11% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$30 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$239
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses29 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage82d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? Yes 74¢ 65¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $26 −$22 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? Jun 13 $101 +$25 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $25 +$6 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$13 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $25 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $25 +$12 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $25 +$6 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $25 +$4 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $25 +$13 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 10? Jun 11 $59 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $26 −$18 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $26 −$20 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 9? Jun 10 $68 −$41 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $25 +$4 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $51 −$44 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 8? Jun 09 $44 +$13 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 8? Jun 09 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 8? Jun 09 $26 +$32 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 −$47 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $50 +$23 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 6? Jun 07 $25 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 6? Jun 07 $26 +$18 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $51 −$25 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $25 −$15 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $26 +$33 +128%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $23 −$18 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 22? Jun 05 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 15? May 15 $65 −$40 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 4? May 04 $25 +$5 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 4? May 04 $89 +$18 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 4? May 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 4? May 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on April 28? Apr 28 $13 +$5 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 28? Apr 28 $25 +$23 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 27? Apr 27 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 30? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 28? Mar 30 $139 −$139 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 29? Mar 29 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 28? Mar 29 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 27? Mar 28 $112 +$14 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 78¢ $68 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 93¢ $41 5d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 75¢ $21 5d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 72¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 72¢ $17 5d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 69¢ $13 5d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 94¢ $25 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $25 5d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 41¢ $26 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 80¢ $24 6d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 88¢ $25 6d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 58¢ $23 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.03 · official $87.97 (match) · 180 history records