Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:00:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D7 0xd7f1…73cd world 325 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 135d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$38,794 (+56%) realized +$42,803 · open −$4,009
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%114W / 171L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$5,404now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$707
14 days+$2,567
30 days+$2,660
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$23,545
other 12% −$626
politics 4% +$1,139
crypto 2% −$405
finance 1% −$510
sports 0% −$337
tech 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+48.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +37.8% +24.6% 67% 33% +81.6%
≤30d 56 -19.2% -26.9% 34% 30% +13.3%
≤90d 169 +46.4% +32.4% 38% 33% +4.0%
all 285 +64.4% +48.8% 40% 33% +25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +48.8% 33% +25.4%
10% ← realistic here +34.5% 30% +13.4%
15% +21.5% 28% +2.4%
20% +9.6% 26% -7.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +64% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +60% → late +69% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$477 vs −$161 · ×2.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$5,404
Realized+$42,803
Unrealized−$4,009
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses114 / 171
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Open positions49
Markets (closed)285 / 325
History coverage135d ⚠
Avg bet$212
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 49 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $2,366 $2,496 +$131 (+6%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $938 $998 +$60 (+6%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 64¢ 16¢ $1,213 $309 −$905 (-75%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $478 $280 −$198 (-41%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 26¢ 25¢ $157 $151 −$6 (-4%)
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $144 $149 +$5 (+3%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $118 $125 +$8 (+6%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $322 $121 −$201 (-62%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $130 $95 −$35 (-27%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Yes 14¢ 19¢ $70 $95 +$25 (+36%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 23¢ 62¢ $31 $83 +$52 (+171%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 21¢ 2¢ $540 $62 −$477 (-88%)
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $77 $58 −$19 (-24%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 48¢ 92¢ $29 $55 +$26 (+89%)
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $59 $36 −$24 (-40%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Yes 19¢ 3¢ $233 $35 −$198 (-85%)
US x China Military clash before 2027? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $55 $32 −$22 (-41%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? Yes 28¢ 12¢ $56 $25 −$31 (-55%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Yes 24¢ 10¢ $53 $23 −$30 (-56%)
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? Yes 34¢ 11¢ $63 $21 −$42 (-66%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 25¢ 2¢ $255 $21 −$234 (-92%)
Megaquake by June 30? Yes 17¢ 2¢ $116 $15 −$101 (-87%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 1¢ $282 $14 −$268 (-95%)
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? Yes 29¢ 5¢ $72 $13 −$59 (-82%)
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Yes 54¢ 4¢ $162 $11 −$151 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $121 −$121 -100%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $184 +$16 +9%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 22 $397 +$812 +205%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of May 18 2026? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 19 $1,307 +$1,263 +97%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? Jun 19 $671 +$1,459 +217%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 19 $344 +$488 +142%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of May 18 2026? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of May 18 2026? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 19 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 19 $42 −$42 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 19 $160 +$92 +57%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026? Jun 19 $61 −$61 -100%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? Jun 19 $58 −$58 -100%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? Jun 19 $138 −$84 -61%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 19 $158 −$158 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 19 $129 −$129 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 19 $192 +$36 +19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 19 $214 −$24 -11%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 18 $7 +$1 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $117 +$125 +106%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $102 +$302 +296%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $267 +$30 +11%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $271 +$1,121 +414%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 17 $32 +$68 +212%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $223 −$148 -67%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 16 $285 −$285 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 16 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Cerebras not IPO before July 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 16 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Mark Zuckerberg attend Trump’s Xi summit? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 16 $225 −$217 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? Jun 16 $351 −$318 -91%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 16 $597 −$551 -92%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 16 $386 +$192 +50%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? Jun 16 $925 −$15 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 16 $166 −$166 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 16 $333 −$169 -51%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? Jun 16 $76 −$76 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? Jun 16 $247 −$247 -100%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 16 $494 −$484 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $58 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $56 34h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $53 35h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 58¢ $56 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 66¢ $30 46h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 46h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 62¢ $61 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 28¢ $54 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 66¢ $66 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 58¢ $203 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $224 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $105 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $35 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $36 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 3d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 5d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $15 6d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 6d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 12¢ $21 8d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 9d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 9d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $70 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,404.11 · official $5,403.24 (match) · 3500 history records