Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:14:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D7 0xd7f3…74ca crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$681 (-12%) realized −$288 · open −$393

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip

Net edge-49%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%5W / 15L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$251per market

Trades / day1.4pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$1,489

7 days−$1,489

14 days−$1,338

30 days−$1,338

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-48.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	-38.8%	-44.7%	29%	29%	-43.7%
≤30d	16	-29.2%	-35.9%	31%	31%	-36.7%
≤90d	20	-43.3%	-48.7%	25%	25%	-42.6%
all	20	-43.3%	-48.7%	25%	25%	-42.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-48.7%	25%	-42.6%
10%	-53.6%	25%	-48.1%
15%	-58.1%	25%	-53.1%
20%	-62.2%	25%	-57.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 61% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -43% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -30% → late -57% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$305 vs −$222 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.46 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage

Net worth$4

Realized−$288

Unrealized−$393

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses5 / 15

Open positions2

Markets (closed)20 / 22

History coverage39d

Avg bet$251

Trades / day1.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	25¢	4¢	$25	$4	−$22 (-86%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	Yes	42¢	0¢	$372	$0	−$372 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Jun 16	$616	−$600	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Jun 16	$104	−$104	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Jun 16	$106	−$100	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Jun 16	$208	−$200	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Jun 16	$415	+$489	+118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Jun 16	$104	+$118	+114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Jun 16	$209	−$200	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Jun 16	$104	−$100	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Jun 16	$311	−$200	-64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Jun 16	$312	−$300	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Jun 16	$407	−$392	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Jun 16	$625	−$600	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Jun 16	$310	+$254	+82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Jun 16	$313	+$446	+143%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8?	Jun 08	$300	−$67	-22%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	Jun 07	$220	+$218	+99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	May 08	$100	−$95	-96%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	May 07	$100	−$100	-100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	May 07	$100	−$100	-100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	May 07	$166	−$166	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$26	3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$102	10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$103	10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$103	10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$103	10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$103	10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$103	10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	BUY Down	20¢	$106	22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$104	26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$104	27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$104	32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$104	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$103	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$104	38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$104	38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$104	43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$104	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	BUY Down	30¢	$105	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$104	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	BUY Up	35¢	$105	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	SELL Down	35¢	$63	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$105	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$98	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$103	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.95 · official $3.95 (match) · 59 history records