Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:09:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D7 0xd7f3…135a sports 160 markets active 0h ago coverage 392d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$575 (+15%) realized +$596 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate60%87W / 59L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$93
14 days−$106
30 days+$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$260
other 6% +$49
world 3% +$179
politics 1% −$3
culture 0% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -9.4% -18.0% 74% 52% -14.0%
≤30d 108 +21.4% +9.9% 65% 54% -1.6%
≤90d 128 +15.3% +4.3% 61% 52% -1.9%
all 146 +32.1% +19.5% 60% 51% +4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.5% 51% +4.7%
10% +8.1% 36% -5.3%
15% -2.4% 32% -14.5%
20% -11.9% 29% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$14 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

392d coverage
Net worth$285
Realized+$596
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses87 / 59
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions14
Markets (closed)146 / 160
History coverage392d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ 48¢ $28 $28 +$1 (+3%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? Yes 88¢ 83¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Washington Nationals 44¢ 46¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+6%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 50¢ 50¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 50¢ 62¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Baltimore Orioles 38¢ 38¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 54¢ 54¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Boston Red Sox 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 54¢ 64¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 23¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $32 $0 -1%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $10 +$3 +33%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $50 +$8 +16%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $50 +$4 +7%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $49 +$9 +18%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $50 +$3 +5%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $50 +$7 +13%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $50 +$4 +7%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $50 +$7 +14%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $50 +$8 +16%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $50 +$5 +10%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $50 +$5 +11%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $50 +$5 +11%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $50 +$8 +16%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $50 +$6 +12%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $27 +$33 +125%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $64 +$23 +35%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $50 +$7 +13%
A.J. Ewing: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $38 +$2 +6%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $50 +$6 +12%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $50 +$8 +16%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $50 +$8 +16%
Dane Myers: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $16 +$2 +10%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $63 +$21 +32%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $67 +$17 +25%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Kyle Tucker: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $96 −$46 -48%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $50 +$4 +8%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $50 +$8 +16%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $50 +$6 +12%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $50 +$6 +12%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $50 +$3 +6%
Christian Walker: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
James Wood: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Brandon Lowe: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $30 +$4 +12%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $20 +$6 +32%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $20 +$1 +3%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $25 −$1 -5%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $40 +$4 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 54¢ $9 2m
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 50¢ $3 4m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 38¢ $2 15m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 38¢ $9 15m
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 50¢ $3 29m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 38¢ $0 59m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 44¢ $1 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 44¢ $10 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 7¢ $2 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 12¢ $4 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 6¢ $2 3h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 95¢ $30 3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 75¢ $10 3h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 44¢ $1 4h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $9 4h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $7 4h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $0 4h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $0 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 18¢ $1 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 18¢ $5 6h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ $14 7h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ $14 7h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 44¢ $2 14h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 50¢ $14 14h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $5 14h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 93¢ $50 24h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 87¢ $50 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $285.01 · official $284.80 (match) · 436 history records