Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:31:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.0

score

D7 0xd7f3…ec52 sports 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover

! high turnover

Total PnL +$2,510 (+39%) realized +$2,471 · open +$39

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip

Net edge+17%after slip

Net WR48%break-even

Win rate52%30W / 28L

Drawdown54%max

Avg bet$105per market

Trades / day8.7pace

Fees−$58est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$339now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$152

7 days+$1,052

14 days+$1,958

30 days+$1,958

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +48%

net ROI/market (all)+26.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	46	+29.8%	+17.5%	39%	39%	+9.8%
≤30d	58	+40.2%	+26.8%	52%	48%	+19.2%
≤90d	58	+40.2%	+26.8%	52%	48%	+19.2%
all	58	+40.2%	+26.8%	52%	48%	+19.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+26.8%	48%	+19.2%
10%	+14.7%	47%	+7.8%
15%	+3.6%	45%	-2.6%
20%	-6.6%	43%	-12.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

7% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +40% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +113% → late -32% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$153 vs −$94 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$339

Realized+$2,471

Unrealized+$39

Win rate (resolved)52%

Wins / losses30 / 28

Est. fees paid−$58

Open positions3

Markets (closed)58 / 62

History coverage9d

Avg bet$105

Trades / day8.7

Drawdown54%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 58 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	3¢	$100	$141	+$41 (+41%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	25¢	28¢	$100	$114	+$14 (+14%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$100	$83	−$17 (-17%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$260	−$258	-99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Jun 25	$165	−$165	-100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 25	$33	−$33	-100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Jun 25	$43	−$43	-100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 25	$21	−$21	-100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	Jun 25	$101	−$101	-100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5	Jun 25	$101	−$101	-100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Jun 25	$101	−$101	-100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 25	$101	−$101	-100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score	Jun 25	$101	−$101	-100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$119	−$119	-100%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5)	Jun 25	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$107	−$104	-98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5)	Jun 25	$41	−$40	-97%
Spread: Germany (-2.5)	Jun 25	$107	−$105	-98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 25	$66	−$66	-100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 25	$102	−$102	-100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 25	$102	−$102	-100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	Jun 25	$62	−$62	-100%
Spread: England (-2.5)	Jun 25	$103	−$103	-100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5)	Jun 25	$170	−$170	-100%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5)	Jun 25	$30	−$30	-100%
Spread: Japan (-5.5)	Jun 25	$9	−$9	-100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$51	−$51	-100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5)	Jun 25	$132	−$132	-100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$115	+$85	+73%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5)	Jun 25	$103	+$929	+905%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 25	$203	+$678	+335%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	Jun 25	$86	+$214	+250%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	Jun 25	$191	+$109	+57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$194	+$106	+55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$167	+$233	+140%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Jun 22	$103	−$103	-100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$204	−$204	-100%
Spread: Japan (-3.5)	Jun 21	$25	+$275	+1116%
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	Jun 21	$81	+$119	+146%
Spread: Japan (-2.5)	Jun 21	$39	+$161	+414%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$191	+$100	+52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$131	+$69	+52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$59	+$41	+70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$179	+$21	+12%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	Jun 20	$52	+$48	+92%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$103	−$45	-44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$62	+$38	+62%
Spread: United States (-1.5)	Jun 19	$71	+$129	+180%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$305	+$320	+105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$101	+$29	+29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$101	+$58	+57%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$102	+$148	+146%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama?	Jun 18	$20	+$18	+90%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	24¢	$100	57m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	25¢	$102	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	40¢	$160	2h
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Germany	33¢	$165	6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	21¢	$107	21h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5)	BUY Sweden	8¢	$41	21h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY	31¢	$10	21h
Spread: Germany (-2.5)	BUY Germany	21¢	$107	21h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5)	BUY Mexico	10¢	$103	23h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	BUY Mexico	21¢	$102	23h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5)	BUY Korea Republic	18¢	$102	23h
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5)	BUY Korea Republic	5¢	$103	23h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	BUY Mexico	18¢	$37	23h
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5)	BUY Korea Republic	14¢	$29	25h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5)	BUY Korea Republic	33¢	$67	25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	59¢	$119	25h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	BUY Mexico	31¢	$63	25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	57¢	$115	25h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	BUY Brazil	28¢	$86	34h
Spread: Qatar (-1.5)	BUY Qatar	3¢	$30	34h
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	BUY Canada	12¢	$62	34h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	5¢	$51	34h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	BUY Morocco	63¢	$191	34h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$194	2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	22¢	$23	3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	22¢	$7	3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	22¢	$7	3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	22¢	$7	3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	22¢	$7	3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	22¢	$14	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $338.60 · official $338.64 (match) · 136 history records