Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:18:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7f4…831e crypto 1212 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (197 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,269 (-78%) realized −$5,272 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%640W / 496L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day197.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,507
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (197 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 741 -24.6% -31.8% 40% 40% -87.4%
≤30d 1136 +5.3% -4.7% 56% 56% -74.8%
≤90d 1136 +5.3% -4.7% 56% 56% -74.8%
all 1136 +5.3% -4.7% 56% 56% -74.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover197.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.7% 56% -74.8%
10% ← realistic here -13.8% 56% -77.2%
15% -22.1% 56% -79.4%
20% -29.8% 56% -81.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +63% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$40 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$5,272
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses640 / 496
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1136 / 1212
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day197.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Down 54¢ 80¢ $11 $16 +$5 (+47%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Down 53¢ 56¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 12AM ET Jun 15 $263 −$263 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 2AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 10AM ET Jun 15 $467 −$467 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 12AM ET Jun 15 $129 −$129 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $211 −$211 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $140 −$140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11AM ET Jun 15 $624 −$624 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 5AM ET Jun 15 $183 −$183 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.55 · official $25.55 · 3500 history records